Feature/OPED
The Economics of Diversification Versus Specialisation in Nigeria
By Oremade Oyedeji
Comparative Advantage as an Alternative Strategy
A few days after I published my opinion piece, The Economics of Nigerians Destroying Nigeria, in which I referred to a well-told story of economics still being recycled, alluding to one former chief of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), who repeatedly stressed that Nigerians were eating up the country’s GDP like they consume ponmo, my good friend sent a clip from Channels TV about the Kaduna Investment Forum (KADINVEST) organised annually by “an Obasanjo Boy”, Governor Nasir El Rufai, and there was Lamido Sanusi Lamido, his childhood friend, delivering a speech as the guest speaker.
I smiled when I watched a part of the video and decided to save the rest for later and somehow, I forgot to and didn’t think about it again until after two days when I saw my friends who enquired if I watched the clip. I told them I hadn’t so the one who sent it to me narrated.
The conversation went something like this (* not real names):
Kadri*: You won’t believe this, I listened to Lamido’s speech at KADINVEST this year, and for the first time at an event like this, he didn’t mention ponmo or any Nigerian eating the GDP.
Me: Really? It is not possible, especially at a forum like KADINVEST?
Malik*: what then did he talk about to shore up state revenue, address unemployment or to revive the dead leather, cotton or groundnut industry in Kaduna and its suburbs?
Kadri: Robotics, use of smartphones and smartphone production.
Malik: What are you saying? Has Kaduna started producing smartphones, and even if we plan to start one now, when are we gaining a comparative advantage in smartphone production to attract consumers from Kaduna or Kano talk less of selling to Lagos?
My friend’s use of the word “comparative advantage” really got me intrigued and it spurred this piece because I then went to watch Sanusi’s speech at KADINVEST 2020.
In his introductory remark, he joked about how his speech has always been a marker for new troubles. Indeed! According to Sanusi, Nigeria has to take economic diversification more seriously. He said that over-reliance on oil has left the country unproductive. He referenced Malaysia to Nigeria (Typically), giving a breakdown of the economic growth of both countries within a 30-year period (using GDP index).
In his words, we were growing but we did not diversify and that explained the huge levels of poverty in the country. He said that was what exposed Nigeria to huge levels of inequality within the country and vulnerability of the economy to shocks.
When Malaysia started, according to him, they started from a GDP per capita level lower than Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1985. It started from $310 to $4,045 while Nigeria started from $345 to $2,055.
Sanusi said “One way to look at it is to understand the difference between production and consumption,” urging the youths to explore the endless possibilities of their smartphones.
How do we understand technology or electricity? He said, “are we consumers or are we producers?” challenging the state to “Produce young men who know that they are worth more than just using their phones to import a pair of shoes.”
Sanusi also believes that the groundnut pyramids do not impress the world any more, adding that he wants Kaduna to focus on robotics instead of production of cotton, groundnut, and leather.
That, in my opinion, is very confusing; I am not sure if there will ever be any programmer that that will write an app to produce food at least not like the one which Kaduna State already has in terms of comparative advantage in trading.
Meanwhile, President Muhammadu Buhari, in his October 1 speech, called for a sincere process of national healing as the nation marked the 60th anniversary of its independence from Great Britain.
The President said Nigeria’s biggest asset is its human capital asset, the most important any nation requires. KADINVEST forum is a good forum to discuss real economic healing, and in my opinion, Governor El-Rufai has a better idea.
In an article, The Nigerian Context in Emerging New World Order & The Pandemic (Part II), published May 25, 2020, where I mentioned the likely benefits of COVID-19 in Northern Nigeria after many economic analysts challenged Northern states in Nigeria to take advantage of the pandemic in understanding and realigning its economy, El-Rufai simply “hit the nail on the head” then, without mincing words when he spoke then as the head of Northern States Governors’ Forum, said he was determined to end the Almajiris’ system of education in the north, amidst the spread of COVID-19 among the children.
El-Rufai said the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still pretty much on the ravage today, provided the opportunity to determine the state of Almajiri education. Almajiri is ideally a system of Islamic education practised in northern Nigeria, where young children leave their homes to live with Islamic scholars and learn about religion.
Almajiri has over the years been corrupted with thousands of such children roaming the streets of Northern Nigeria as beggars and without any form of education, contributing to the over 10 million out of school children in Northern Nigeria alone. That is 10 million human capital assets, the most important any nation requires, according to the president speech on October 1.
A focus on Human capital asset development, a 10-year strategy to integrate millions of Almajiri children on the street of Kaduna into taxpayers in the next few years will thereby be increasing state’s capacity to generate revenue from personal income tax geometrically.
Let me conclude this article by mentioning trending calls for true federalism, understandable economics and restructuring in Nigeria among many senior citizens recently.
For example, the Guardian and Thisday newspapers headline some days ago noted: We either restructure or breakup – Pastor Adeboye. Likewise, Former President Olusegun Obasanjo was also accused and called Divider-in-Chief recently for the same course, to mention a few.
According to the United Nation document titled 50 years together for a sustainable future, “the necessity of specialisation according to comparative advantage for economic development should continue to be an integral part of policy advice to every state.
“The argument is that every state should develop a comparative advantage in commodities that demand skills and assets it readily has a comparative advantage in trading.”
Nigeria may yet produce the first Female Director-General (Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This may prove that Nigeria can position herself for trading with the world in goods and services she has a comparative advantage in.
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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