Feature/OPED
The Economics of Nigerians Destroying Nigeria: Seeking Help of the Divider-in-Chief
By Oremade Oyedeji
In one of my previous articles published a few months back titled Pandemic of the Prodigal Generation, I predicted that Nigeria’s politics will reset to align with the coming post-pandemic changes in world political thought and the balance of power.
This is because it is no longer business as usual. Pretty much is former president Olusegun Obabsanjo shaking things up with his comments and captioned in news headlines like Nigeria is a fail state. I strongly encourage former President Goodluck Jonathan to follow suit.
In response to his comments, I saw this screaming headline on the internet (Vanguard) Buhari prevented Nigeria from becoming failed state, Obasanjo now divider-in-chief — Lai Mohammed on September 14, 2020. Seeing this headline, I couldn’t but laugh in Chinese 大笑Dà xiào.
Speaking through the Minister of Information, the presidency challenged former President Obasanjo to help in proffering solutions to the problems plaguing the country instead of being Nigeria’s Divider-in-Chief. (Me: at least they are now asking for help).
The Minister claimed that President Muhammadu Buhari’s assumption of office in 2015 prevented Nigeria from becoming a failed state.
Hmmm… anyways, it is still the same old Economics or Buharinomics they now call it – same old stories if you ask me.. Who will love Nigeria better if not this same Divider-in-Chief?
There is an African adage that says Ogbon die Omugo die ohun ni Oba fi nto ilu (meaning: little wisdom mixed with little foolishness is how a king builds the city). I rest my case.
Talking of the old story of Economics, we have heard of how a former CBN Governor turned a town hall meeting into an Economics 101 class even in the presence of top professionals including a renowned World Bank expert, Mrs Ngozi Okonjo–Iweala.
I knew there is a problem, same old story where Lamido Sanusi Lamido at his time as CBN chief (another example) said Nigerians are eating up the GDP through the consumption of ponmo (cow skin) delicacy. At that point, I knew all these professors have all run out of ideas; they are all speaking big grammar.
Ponmo is a commercially run trade and is probably employing over two million women in the distribution chain in western Nigeria alone and a whole agriculture and butchery ecosystem in Ijebu Igbo. For some to say this trade is not adding to the GDP, I beg to differ.
“We produce cotton, we import textiles. We have hides and skin but we import shoes and bags from China. Not that we don’t kill the cattle, but what do we do with the leather? We eat ponmo. It is a delicacy; we consume our GDP,” the deposed Emir of Kano was quoted as saying.
Same old Economics and please tell me, must we destroy the trades done by over two million women or the thriving butchery business in Ijebu Igbo or the agriculture ecosystem for the leather industry so as to grow Nigeria’s GDP? Walahi, this life no balance o; same old story if you ask me, I am beginning to believe this is their “hate & love” for Nigeria and a desperate attempt to hold on to power again. No wonder anyone with a solution for Nigeria is now the Divider-in-Chief. Nigeria I hail o.
Contrary to the Minister of Information comment, the Daily Times recently said in one of its headlines on September 7, 2020, that Nigeria’s economy is collapsing — Yemi Osinbajo.
On Monday, our dear Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, said the coronavirus pandemic has diminished revenue and foreign-exchange earnings in the country.
I even want to ask, what exactly is the problem of Nigeria; is it foreign debt to GDP ratio, revenue to GDP or is Nigeria officially a fail state really?
In summary, the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the less likely the country will pay back its debt and the higher its risk of default.
A study by the World Bank said if the debt-to-GDP ratio of a country exceeds 77 per cent for an extended period of time, it slows economic growth.
Okay, let us understand it from Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones or the federating states. Who among them is a debtor and who among them will meet its debt obligation? Simple Economics you say.
An African adage says Olowo kan larin atoshi mefa atoshi ni gbogbo won (meaning, a rich man among six poor men is also poor).
In fact, we need more Dividers-in-Chief to speak up, I am appointing myself as P.A to the Divider-in-Chief and it will be a great honour.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) listed Nigeria’s debts to World Bank, AfDB, China, Germany, and others on September 13, 2020. Nigeria’s highest external debt stock to a multilateral or bilateral financial institution is $10.46 billion (N3.965 trillion at the official rate of N379/$) and it is to the World Bank Group and it associates including: International Development Association ($10.05 billion) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ($409.51 million).
Nigeria’s total indebtedness to the multilateral institutions during the period under review was put at $16.36 billion, representing 51.97 per cent of the country’s total external debt stock.
The DMO put the country’s indebtedness to the AfDB Group at $5.896 billion.
Others are Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa ($5.88 million), European Development Fund ($52.52 million), Islamic Development Bank ($30.22 million) and International Fund for Agricultural Development ($201.68 million).
Further analysis of the country’s external debts showed that Nigeria’s total indebtedness to some bilateral organisations, which in this case include foreign nations, was $3.948bn as of June 30.
This alone represents 12.54 per cent of the country’s entire $31.477 billion external debt stock during the period under review.
Nigeria’s indebtedness to China (Exim Bank of China) was $3.24 billion, while its debt to France (Agence Francaise Development) was $403.65 million.
The country’s debt to Japan (Japan International Corporation Agency) was $76.69 million, while Nigeria owes India (Exim Bank of India) $34.87 million. Nigeria also owes Germany $192.7 million.
Still under Nigeria’s external debt stock as of June 30, the DMO put the country’s Eurobonds at $10.87 billion, while its Diaspora Bond was $300 million.
Eurobond and Diaspora Bond are commercial external debt stock and account for $11.168 billion, representing 35.48 per cent of the country’s external debt stock.
Is Nigeria A failed state?
As contained in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy (MTEF/FSP) report recently released by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Nigeria’s debts reached a new milestone with the country’s debt service as a percentage of revenue rising to 99 per cent in the first quarter of 2020.
A cursory review of the data obtained from the MTEF/FSP report showed that in Q1 2020, Nigeria paid N943.12 billion to service its debts (interest on the loans) while the federal government retained revenue was put at N950.56 billion. This means Nigeria’s debt service to revenue is now 99 per cent, meaning for every N100 the country generated as revenue, it used N99 to pay interest.
The continued depletion in Nigeria’s revenue is raising questions around the solvency of the Nigerian economy. Generally, debt sustainability can be explained using either debt to GDP or debt service to revenue ratio. With these yardsticks, Nigeria’s total public debt is below 30 per cent of GDP. The reality is that, debt-to-GDP is not regarded as the best indicator of debt sustainability, especially in Nigeria where tax-to-GDP is low.
For Nigeria, a better indicator of debt sustainability is the debt service-to-revenue ratio, which has in recent years risen to worrying levels, and now 99 per cent as at Q1 2020. Did I hear you say Buharinomics?
Let conclude this article on a lighter note, with a line from a late Abeokuta born musician, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti.
♫ ♬.. When we dey pikin – FATHA/MAMA BE TEACHER
When we they for school – TEACHER BE TEACHER
Now dey University – LECTURER BE TEACHER
When we start to work – GOVERMENT BE TEACHER
♫ “Who be Government Teacher ♫ ♬.. CU-ULTURE AND TRADITION – Cu-ulture and Tradition♬.
Facts about ancient Ijebu Igbo Town
1 – Ijebu Igbo is the home to ponmo Ijebu. The town has over 30 ponmo making industries known as buka, employing thousands of men and women. Ijebu Igbo is the major supplier of ponmo to over 20 million consumers of the delicacy living in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun States.
2 – Ijebu Igbo is the home of cow meat and the town is one of the originators of butcher business locally called alapata. Ijebu Igbo is one of the major distributors of cow meat to Epe, Aja, Sagamu and all other towns within and around Ijebu land with around 40 million people.
People come from most parts of the country to buy cow meat in Ijebu igbo because it is blessed with professional butchers. Butchery is a proud profession of men who provide food for their families in Ijebu Igbo.
3 – Ijebu Igbo has an agricultural ecosystem and is the second largest town in Ogun State in terms of GDP and landmass. The land is arable for farming. There are hundreds of towns, villages and hamlets under Ijebu Igbo and there major occupation is farming and they depend on organic wastes from the town.
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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