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Global Payments Revenue Pool Could Reach $2.9trn by 2030

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payments revenue pool

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The global payments revenue pool is projected to reach about $2.9 trillion by 2030 from the current value of $1.5 trillion, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

It was stated that in 2020, the market recorded a decline of 2.5 per cent from the figures achieved a year earlier but experts say all regions are likely to see growth over the next five years, with Africa having a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9 per cent.

Asia-Pacific continues to lead the way with a CAGR of 8.8 per cent from 2020 to 2025, followed by Latin America at 8.3 per cent, the Middle East and North America at 5.8 per cent, and Europe at 5.3 per cent.

According to BCG, the payments industry suffered a mild impact from the COVID-19 crisis and has returned to growth with renewed momentum.

The report, titled Global Payments 2021: All in for Growth, is the 19th annual analysis by BCG of the global payments industry and reports that the sector responded quickly to challenges posed by the pandemic – from e-commerce enablement to accelerating cash-to-noncash conversion.

“The payments industry was an enabler of economic recovery during the COVID-19 crisis,” said Yann Sénant, a Paris-based BCG managing director and senior partner, coauthor of the report, and global leader of BCG’s payments and transaction banking segment. “But meeting the challenges raised by the pandemic has opened the gates to a wave of innovation that will see new players entering the space in greater numbers and raising the competitive stakes. The winners over the next five years will be the industry participants who move quickly to adapt to the new landscape, by seizing this new partnership and revenue opportunities.”

The report identifies a number of global trends that are likely to dominate the payments sector in the coming years. For example, digital ecosystems and specialized software solutions are likely to play a growing role in the industry, as integrated software vendors, Big tech players, and fintechs enter the space and as banks increase their engagement. A wave of industry consolidation and mergers and acquisitions will accompany this trend.

Digital currency activity is likely to pick up the pace with the possible launch of more central bank digital currencies. Speaking on the digital currency, Tolu Oyekan, Partner, BCG, Lagos said it was laudable that Nigeria will be one of the few African countries that are exploring the possibility of issuing a domestic Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) with the launch of the eNaira.

He said: “Digital currency is a more robust, efficient and regulated payment offer, it has the potential of enabling a safe financial system by significantly reducing liquidity and credit risk inherent in the traditional payment systems. The effective implementation of the Nigeria digital currency eNaira could enable faster economic growth, drive cross border payments and remittances which will, in turn, reduce the demand for forex and consequently the exchange rate”, he said.

Oyekan also stated that digital currency can improve financial inclusion.

Another global trend the report identifies is merchant acquisition, which it believes will remain the fastest-growing area in the sector. After a low of just 2.2 per cent growth from 2019 to 2020, it is expected to return to an annual CAGR of 11.3 per cent over the next five years, close its pre-pandemic average rate of 11.8 per cent from 2015 to 2019.

However, a boom in e-commerce is expected to dwarf physical point-of-sale transactions growth. These dynamics should lead to increasing cutting out middlemen. This is because of integrated software vendors and online marketplaces where consumers are able to pay for goods and services on their platforms.

Issuers and networks are trends that are expected to deliver strong performance, with issuing revenues in position to grow by 7.6 per cent and networks by 11.4 per cent from 2020 to 2025, close to the CAGRs of 9.4 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, in the five years prior to the pandemic.

Potential headwinds in this area include the proliferation of noncard payments options—notably the success of “Buy now, pay later”—and a greater push by integrated software vendors and fintechs to partner with next-generation card processors on card opportunities.

Although the wholesale payments revenue pool dropped by $22 billion between 2019 and 2020, owing to low-interest rates and a decline in business spending, the recovery of this global trend is likely to be quick, with 6.6 per cent growth likely until 2025. However, the wholesale payments environment continues to be challenging, as incumbents and non-traditional players alike show increasing ambition in the sector, and as digital B2B and B2B2C platforms proliferate across all industries. In addition, corporate customers are increasingly demanding streamlined banking and payments services, analytical insights, and seamless data integration into corporate management systems.

Fintech is another likely dominant global trend. Over the last two decades, there has been strong growth by fintechs in the banking sector. Experts at BCG advise that fintechs must refine strategies to capture growth in an increasingly crowded space and develop elements such as people organization, compliance, and risk management functions.

“The payments ecosystem is in flux, and this offers tremendous growth opportunities to companies that are prepared to act fast,” said Markus Ampenberger, a Munich-based BCG partner and associate director, and co-author of the report. “Now is the time to gain long-term advantage through bold and strategic action.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Trump Picks Kevin Warsh to Succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair

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Kevin Warsh

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Donald Trump has named Mr Kevin Warsh as the successor to Mr Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve chair, ending a prolonged odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank.

The decision culminates a process that officially began last summer but started much earlier than that, with President Trump launching a criticism against the Powell-led US central bank almost since he took the job in 2018.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post announcing the selection.

US analysts noted that the 55-year old appear not to ripple market because of his previous experience at the apex bank as Governor, with others saying he wouldn’t always do the bidding of the American president.

If approved by the US Senate, Mr Warsh will take over the position in May, when Mr Powell’s term expires.

Despite having argued for reductions recently, “Warsh has a long hawkish history that markets have not forgotten,” one analyst told Bloomberg.

President Trump has castigated Mr Powell for not lowering interest rates more quickly. His administration also launched a criminal investigation of Powell and the Federal Reserve earlier this month, which led Mr Powell to issue an extraordinary rebuke of President Trump’s efforts to politicize the independent central bank.

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BRICS Agenda, United States Global Dominance and Africa’s Development Priorities

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Vsevolod Sviridov BRICS Agenda

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Donald Trump has been leading the United States as its president since January 2025. Washington’s priority is to Make America Great Again (MAGA). Trump’s tariffs have rippled many economies from Latin America through Asian region to the continent of Africa. Trump’s Davos speech has explicitly revealed building a ‘new world order’ based on dominance rather than trust. He has also initiated whirlwind steps to annex Greenland, while further created the Board of Peace, aimed at helping end the two-year war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and to oversee reconstruction. Trump is handling the three-year old Russia-Ukraine crisis, and other deep-seated religious and ethnic conflicts in Africa.

These emerging trends, at least in a considerable short term, are influencing BRICS which has increased its geopolitical importance, and focusing on uniting the countries in the Global East and Global South. From historical records, BRICS, described as non-western organization, and is loosing its coherence primarily due to differences in geopolitical interests and multinational alignments, and of course, a number of members face threats from the United States while there are variations of approach to the emerging worldwide perceptions.

In this conversation, deputy director of the Center for African Studies at Moscow’s National Research University High School of Economics (HSE), Vsevolod Sviridov, expresses his opinions focusing on BRICS agenda under India’s presidency, South Africa’s G20 chairmanship in 2024, and genegrally putting Africa’s development priorities within the context of emerging trends. Here are the interview excerpts:

What is the likely impact of Washington’s geopolitics and its foreign policy on BRICS?

From my perspective, the current Venezuela-U.S. confrontation, especially Washington’s tightened leverage over Venezuelan oil revenue flows and the knock-on effects for Chinese interests, will be read inside BRICS as a reminder that sovereign resources can still be constrained by financial chokepoints and sanctions politics.  This does not automatically translate into BRICS taking Venezuela’s side, but it does strengthen the bloc’s long-running argument for more resilient South-South trade settlement, diversified energy chains, and financing instruments that reduce exposure to coercive measures, because many African and other developing economies face similar vulnerabilities around commodities, shipping, insurance, and correspondent banking. At the same time, BRICS’ expansion makes consensus harder: several members maintain significant ties with the U.S., so the most likely impact is a technocratic push rather than a loud political campaign.

And highlighting, specifically, the position of BRICS members (South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt, as well as its partnering African States (Nigeria and Uganda)?

Venezuela crisis urges African members to demand that BRICS deliver usable financial and trade tools. For South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt, the Venezuela case is more about the precedent: how quickly external pressure can reshape a country’s fiscal room, debt dynamics, and even investor perceptions when energy revenues and sanctions compliance collide. South Africa will likely argue that BRICS should prioritize investment, industrialization, and trade facilitation. Ethiopia and Egypt, both debt-sensitive and searching for FDI, will be especially attentive to anything that helps de-risk financing, while avoiding steps that could trigger secondary-sanctions anxieties or scare off diversified investors.

Would the latest geopolitical developments ultimately shape the agenda for BRICS 2026 under India’s presidency?

India’s 2026 chairmanship is already framed around “Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability,” and Venezuela’s shock (paired with broader sanction/market-volatility lessons) will likely sharpen the resilience part. From an African perspective, that is an opportunity: South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt can press India to translate the theme into deliverables that matter on the ground: food and fertilizer stability, affordable energy access, infrastructure funding. India, in turn, has incentives to keep BRICS focused on economic problem-solving rather than becoming hostage to any single flashpoint. So the Venezuela episode may function as a cautionary case study that accelerates practical cooperation where African members have the most to gain. And I would add: the BRICS agenda will become increasingly Africa-centered simply because Africa’s weight globally is rising, and recent summit discussions have repeatedly highlighted African participation as a core Global South vector.  South Africa’s G20 chairmanship last year explicitly framed around putting Africa’s development priorities high on the agenda, further proves this point.

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Afreximbank Terminates Credit Relationship With Fitch Amid Rating Tension

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Afreximbank

By Adedapo Adesanya

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has has officially terminated its credit rating relationship with Fitch Ratings, indicating friction between both firms.

According to a statement on Friday, the Cairo-based African lender said the decision follows a review of the relationship, and its firm belief that the credit rating exercise no longer reflects a good understanding of the bank’s Establishment Agreement, its mission, and its mandate.

“Afreximbank’s business profile remains robust, underpinned by strong shareholder relationships and the legal protections embedded in its Establishment Agreement, signed and ratified by its member states,” the statement added.

Business Post reports that Fitch had cut Afreximbank’s credit rating to one notch above ‘junk’ Status last year and currently has it on a ‘negative outlook’, which is a rating agency’s terminology for another downgrade warning.

Lower rating means higher borrowing costs for Afreximbank, which could directly impact its ability to lend and the low rates at which it does so.

Recall that Fitch in its report published in June 2025, had estimated Afreximbank’s non-performing loans at 7.1 per cent by the end of 2024, exceeding Fitch’s 6 per cent “high risk” threshold.

The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) contested Fitch’s assessment and argued that Fitch confused loan restructuring requests from South Sudan, Zambia, and Ghana by considering them as defaults, claiming this was inconsistent with the 1993 treaty establishing Afreximbank.

African policymakers have raised worries about the ratings by foreign rating agencies like Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P among others. This has increased call for an African focused agency, which is expected to have commenced but continues to face delays.

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