World
Global Payments Revenue Pool Could Reach $2.9trn by 2030
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The global payments revenue pool is projected to reach about $2.9 trillion by 2030 from the current value of $1.5 trillion, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
It was stated that in 2020, the market recorded a decline of 2.5 per cent from the figures achieved a year earlier but experts say all regions are likely to see growth over the next five years, with Africa having a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9 per cent.
Asia-Pacific continues to lead the way with a CAGR of 8.8 per cent from 2020 to 2025, followed by Latin America at 8.3 per cent, the Middle East and North America at 5.8 per cent, and Europe at 5.3 per cent.
According to BCG, the payments industry suffered a mild impact from the COVID-19 crisis and has returned to growth with renewed momentum.
The report, titled Global Payments 2021: All in for Growth, is the 19th annual analysis by BCG of the global payments industry and reports that the sector responded quickly to challenges posed by the pandemic – from e-commerce enablement to accelerating cash-to-noncash conversion.
“The payments industry was an enabler of economic recovery during the COVID-19 crisis,” said Yann Sénant, a Paris-based BCG managing director and senior partner, coauthor of the report, and global leader of BCG’s payments and transaction banking segment. “But meeting the challenges raised by the pandemic has opened the gates to a wave of innovation that will see new players entering the space in greater numbers and raising the competitive stakes. The winners over the next five years will be the industry participants who move quickly to adapt to the new landscape, by seizing this new partnership and revenue opportunities.”
The report identifies a number of global trends that are likely to dominate the payments sector in the coming years. For example, digital ecosystems and specialized software solutions are likely to play a growing role in the industry, as integrated software vendors, Big tech players, and fintechs enter the space and as banks increase their engagement. A wave of industry consolidation and mergers and acquisitions will accompany this trend.
Digital currency activity is likely to pick up the pace with the possible launch of more central bank digital currencies. Speaking on the digital currency, Tolu Oyekan, Partner, BCG, Lagos said it was laudable that Nigeria will be one of the few African countries that are exploring the possibility of issuing a domestic Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) with the launch of the eNaira.
He said: “Digital currency is a more robust, efficient and regulated payment offer, it has the potential of enabling a safe financial system by significantly reducing liquidity and credit risk inherent in the traditional payment systems. The effective implementation of the Nigeria digital currency eNaira could enable faster economic growth, drive cross border payments and remittances which will, in turn, reduce the demand for forex and consequently the exchange rate”, he said.
Oyekan also stated that digital currency can improve financial inclusion.
Another global trend the report identifies is merchant acquisition, which it believes will remain the fastest-growing area in the sector. After a low of just 2.2 per cent growth from 2019 to 2020, it is expected to return to an annual CAGR of 11.3 per cent over the next five years, close its pre-pandemic average rate of 11.8 per cent from 2015 to 2019.
However, a boom in e-commerce is expected to dwarf physical point-of-sale transactions growth. These dynamics should lead to increasing cutting out middlemen. This is because of integrated software vendors and online marketplaces where consumers are able to pay for goods and services on their platforms.
Issuers and networks are trends that are expected to deliver strong performance, with issuing revenues in position to grow by 7.6 per cent and networks by 11.4 per cent from 2020 to 2025, close to the CAGRs of 9.4 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, in the five years prior to the pandemic.
Potential headwinds in this area include the proliferation of noncard payments options—notably the success of “Buy now, pay later”—and a greater push by integrated software vendors and fintechs to partner with next-generation card processors on card opportunities.
Although the wholesale payments revenue pool dropped by $22 billion between 2019 and 2020, owing to low-interest rates and a decline in business spending, the recovery of this global trend is likely to be quick, with 6.6 per cent growth likely until 2025. However, the wholesale payments environment continues to be challenging, as incumbents and non-traditional players alike show increasing ambition in the sector, and as digital B2B and B2B2C platforms proliferate across all industries. In addition, corporate customers are increasingly demanding streamlined banking and payments services, analytical insights, and seamless data integration into corporate management systems.
Fintech is another likely dominant global trend. Over the last two decades, there has been strong growth by fintechs in the banking sector. Experts at BCG advise that fintechs must refine strategies to capture growth in an increasingly crowded space and develop elements such as people organization, compliance, and risk management functions.
“The payments ecosystem is in flux, and this offers tremendous growth opportunities to companies that are prepared to act fast,” said Markus Ampenberger, a Munich-based BCG partner and associate director, and co-author of the report. “Now is the time to gain long-term advantage through bold and strategic action.”
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
After the expiration of bilateral agreement on trade, the US Congress as well as African leaders, highly recognizing its significance, has been pursuing the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The agreement, which allows duty-free access to American markets for African exporters, expired on September 30, 2025.
The US Congress is advancing a bill to revive and extend AGOA, but South Africa’s continued inclusion remains uncertain. The trade pact still has strong bipartisan support, with the House Ways and Means Committee approving it 37-3. However, US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, raised concerns about South Africa, citing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and said the administration could consider excluding the country.
This threat puts at risk the duty-free access that has significantly benefited South African automotive, agricultural, and wine exports. The debate highlights how trade policy is becoming entangled with broader diplomatic tensions, casting uncertainty over a key pillar of US-Africa economic relations.
Nevertheless, South Africa continues to lobby for inclusion. South Africa trade summary records show that the US goods and services trade with South Africa estimated at $26.2 billion in 2024. The US and South Africa signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as far back as in 2012.
The duty-free access for nearly 40 African countries has boosted development and fostered more equitable and sustainable growth in Africa. By design AGOA is a useful mechanism for improving accessibility to trade competitiveness, connectivity, and productivity. During these past 25 years, AGOA has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
Key features and benefits of AGOA:
It’s worth reiterating here that during these past several years, AGOA has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. In this case, as AGOA is closely working with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat and with the African Union (AU), trade professionals could primarily leverage various economic sectors and unwaveringly act as bridges between the United States and Africa.
* Duty-free Access: AGOA allows eligible products from sub-Saharan African countries to enter the US market without paying tariffs.
* Promotion of Economic Growth: The program encourages economic growth by providing incentives for African countries to open their economies and build free markets.
* Encouraging Economic Reforms: AGOA encourages economic and political reforms in eligible countries, including the rule of law and market-oriented policies.
* Increased Trade and Investment: The program aims to strengthen trade and investment ties between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa.
With the changing times, Africa is also building its muscles towards a new direction since the introduction of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was officially launched in July 2019.
In practical terms, trading under the AfCFTA commenced in January 2021. And the United States has prioritized the AfCFTA as one mechanism through which to strengthen its long-term relations with the continent. In the context of the crucial geopolitical changes, African leaders, corporate executives, and the entire business community are optimistic over the extension of AGOA, for mutually beneficial trade partnerships with the United States.
Worthy to say that AGOA, to a considerable degree, as a significant trade policy has played a crucial role in promoting economic growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Africa stands at the cusp of a transformative digital revolution. With the expansion of mobile connectivity, internet penetration, digital platforms, and financial technology, the continent’s digital economy is poised to become a significant driver of sustainable development, intra-Africa trade, job creation, and economic inclusion.
The African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly Aspiration 1 (a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development), highlights the importance of leveraging technology and innovation. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has opened a new chapter in market integration, creating opportunities to unlock the full potential of the digital economy across all sectors.
Despite remarkable progress, challenges persist. These include limited digital infrastructure, disparities in digital literacy, fragmented regulatory frameworks, inadequate access to financing for tech-based enterprises, and gender gaps in digital participation. Moreover, Africa must assert its digital sovereignty, build local data ecosystems, and secure cyber-infrastructure to thrive in a rapidly changing global digital landscape.
Against this backdrop, the 16th African Union Private Sector Forum provides a timely platform to explore and shape actionable strategies for harnessing Africa’s digital economy to accelerate intra-Africa trade and sustainable development.
The 16th High-Level AU Private Sector forum is set to take place in Djibouti, from the 14 to 16 December 2025, under the theme “Harnessing Africa’s Digital Economy and Innovation for Accelerating Intra-Africa Trade and Sustainable Development”
The three-day Forum will feature high-level plenaries, expert panels, breakout sessions, and networking opportunities. Each day will spotlight a core pillar of Africa’s digital transformation journey.
Day 1: Digital Economy and Trade Integration in Africa
Focus: Leveraging digital platforms and technologies to enhance trade integration and competitiveness under AfCFTA.
Day 2: Innovation, Fintech, and the Future of African Economies
Focus: Driving economic inclusion through fintech, innovation ecosystems, and youth entrepreneurship.
Day 3: Building Policy, Regulatory Frameworks, and Partnerships for Digital Growth
Focus: Creating an enabling environment for digital innovation and infrastructure through effective policy, governance, and partnerships.
To foster strategic dialogue and action-oriented collaboration among key stakeholders in Africa’s digital ecosystem, with the goal of leveraging digital economy and innovation to boost intra-Africa trade, accelerate economic transformation, and support inclusive, sustainable development.
* Promote Digital Trade: Identify mechanisms and policy actions to enable seamless cross-border digital commerce and integration under AfCFTA.
* Foster Innovation and Fintech: Advance inclusive fintech ecosystems and support innovation-driven entrepreneurship, especially among youth and women.
* Policy and Regulatory Harmonization: Build consensus on regional and continental digital regulatory frameworks to foster trust, security, and interoperability.
* Encourage Investment and Public-Private Partnerships: Strengthen collaboration between governments, private sector, and development partners to invest in digital infrastructure, R&D, and skills development.
* Advance Digital Inclusion and Sustainability: Ensure that digital transformation contributes to environmental sustainability and the empowerment of marginalized communities.
The AU Private Sector Forum has held several forums, with key recommendations. These recommendations provide valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the African private sector and offer guidance for policymakers on how to support its growth and development.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Lukoil, Russia’s energy giant, has seriously lost its grounds across Africa, due to United States sanctions. Sanctions have complicated the company’s potential continuity in operating its largest oil field projects, grappling its investment particularly in Republic of Ghana, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Reports indicated the sanctions are further dismantling most of Lukoil’s operations, causing significant staff layoffs in its offices worldwide. For instance, Lukoil’s significant upstream operations in the Middle East include a 75% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield and a 60% stake in Iraq’s Block 10 development. In Egypt, the company holds stakes in various oilfields alongside local partners.
Lukoil has until December 13, 2025, to negotiate the sale of most of its international assets, including those in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It has already terminated several important agreements that were signed with international partners due to difficulties in circumventing the sanctions.
Reports said calculated efforts to diversify exploration business relations is turning extremely complex, and current at the cross-roads, Lukoil will have to ultimately give up existing contracts and agreements it had signed with external countries.
Lukoil’s website reports also pointed to reasons for abandoning oil and gas exploration and drilling project that it began in Sierra Leone. According to those reports, Lukoil could withdraw from almost all of the projects in West Africa.
In addition to geopolitical sanctions, technical and geographical hitches, Lukoil noted on its website, an additional obstacles that “the African leadership and government policies always pose serious problems to operations in the region.” Similarly, the Kremlin-controlled Rosneft abandoned its interest in the southern Africa oil pipeline construction, negatively impacted on Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
United States sanctions has hit Lukoil, one of the Russia’s biggest oil companies, like many other Russian companies, that has had a long history shuttling forth and back with declaration of business intentions or mere interests in tapping into oil and gas resources in Africa.
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