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Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Beyond the Debates

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Matthew Ehret

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

China, South and India (BRICS members), during the past two years, have made conscious efforts and provided crucial roadmaps for brokering peace between former Soviet republics: Russia and Ukraine.

At least, the BRICS members have signalled that, despite the worsening relationships and the economic instability created by this Russia-Ukraine conflict, there has to be a ceasefire preceding ‘political dialogue and mechanism of diplomacy’ in the peace process.

Notwithstanding that, BRICS members still have significant hope that Russia would adhere to the concrete aspects of BRICS declarations and communique on conflict resolution and show respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In this September WhatsApp conversation with Matthew Ehret, a Senior Fellow and International Relations Expert at the American University in Moscow, he offers an insight into some aspects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing peace process debates within the context of the emerging new global order. Here are the interview excerpts:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has raged on since late February 2022, and now the main question is why BRICS+, an informal association, has not so far been successful in brokering peace?

As you said, BRICS+ is not a cohesive command and control institution but rather a general umbrella where 10 nations have chosen to ally together under a philosophical framework outside of the dying closed-system rules-based international order. Although the alliance has become enhanced and empowered in recent years, it is still predominantly a dialogue platform designed to facilitate coordination on matters of geo-economic policy, this lacking the clout to project power or concerted action as a thing unto itself.

In its several declarations and communique, BRICS+ has collectively stated ‘political dialogue’ and ‘mechanism of diplomacy’ in resolving political crises and conflicts. Are these methods, dialogue and diplomacy, working in the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

In theory, it is solid and represents the only viable approach to cutting through Gordion knots designed to trap target nations into war. However, the reality which the member states of the BRICS+ find themselves navigating is extraordinarily complex and animated by extremely powerful sociopathic power structures which are ideologically intent on tearing down the framework of the sovereign nation-state system to bring about a new world (depopulated) order and will go to any extent to make this happen including launching a thermonuclear war. It is very sensitive and the slightest mistake in addressing this time bomb on any front (such as Ukraine, Israel/Gaza or increasingly Taiwan) may result in a detonation that would set the world on fire and threaten to plunge the world into a prolonged dark age.

How do you assess efforts made by China, India and South Africa during these past two years? And what are your views and interpretations of the proposal, which underlined ‘constructive role’ in the process for another future Peace Summit by India?

I think the effort has been laudable but often lacking an appreciation for the ideological commitment to total uncompromising victory on the part of the death cult managing the Western unipolar agenda. I think the strategy adopted by the intelligentsia of the BRICS+ is rooted in buying time by invoking consistent common sense proposals which only insane and dishonest actors would wish to reject to 1) buy time while the trans-Atlantic system continues to collapse in on itself through its systematic incompetence and 2) set a framework of consistency and common sense which a humbled, crisis-ridden west may be able to accept under foreseeable crisis conditions.

Can BRICS+ use its boastful numerical strength (as more than 40 countries have been listed awaiting ascension) and with reverberating voices on the platform, particularly during the forthcoming BRICS+ Summit in October 2024, to attempt brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine? 

I hope so. Participatory nations must move more quickly to make concessions to give their alliance a force and power of common action via such mechanisms and the BRICS New Development Bank and AIIB, new alt-IMF Contingency Reserved Mechanism, Silk Road Fund etc which have not been permitted to play a proper offensive role in the fight to establish a viable new economic architecture. The SCO is complementary but also must integrate with the BRICS+ to establish an integrated security framework which can replace the dying rules-based idiocy.

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South Africa’s G20 Chairmanship: Unique Opportunity for Optimizing Economic Partnership With Africa

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Brand South Africa, Lefentse Nokaneng

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The Group of 20 (G20) is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 sovereign countries, the European Union (EU), and the African Union (AU). It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation and sustainable development, through annual meetings of Heads of State and Heads of Government.

The G20 was created in 1999 in response to several world economic crises, and South Africa has been the only African member in the Group. However, in September 2023, at the 18th G20 Summit, Indian PM Narendra Modi announced that the African Union (AU) has been included as a member of the G20, making it the 21st member of the intergovernmental forum. South Africa takes over the G20 presidency in 2025.

In mid-December 2024, Brand South Africa’s General Manager Lefentse Nokaneng, discussed in this insightful interview, the significance of the G20 forum, the multifaceted prospects and unique opportunities G20 could offer
Africa. Here are the interview excerpts:

What are the aspirations, as South Africa prepares to take over G20 presidency from Brazil, for Africa?
As South Africa prepares to take over the G20 presidency from Brazil in 2025, our aspirations for Africa have always been clear and compelling. As a founding member of the G20, South Africa has played a pivotal role in advocating for Africa’s inclusion within this influential multilateral forum.

Under the theme “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainable Development,” South Africa’s presidency presents a significant opportunity to advance crucial reforms in the global governance system, ensuring that it is more representative of and responsive to the developmental needs of Africa and the Global South.

To this, by focusing on reforms to the multilateral trading system and the global financial architecture, we aim to effectively address the pressing challenges of underdevelopment and transform the fortunes of the most vulnerable
communities, many of whom reside in Africa.

As the leading economy on the continent, South Africa is deeply committed to unlocking Africa’s vast potential and fostering inclusive growth through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). We envision a G20 agenda that not only amplifies Africa’s voice but also drives collaborative efforts toward sustainable development aligned with the aspirations of the Pact for the Future and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. This vision aligns with the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which aims to realize “The Africa We Want,” ultimately improving the lives of all Africans.

But generally, how Africa, as a continent, so far benefited from G20, and what concretely can we underscore as remarkable achievements?

The inclusion of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20 can be underscored as a key achievement for the continent, providing a crucial platform for African nations to have a voice and to engage directly with major economic powers on key issues, that affect them, such as debt relief, security, infrastructure development, pandemics, and climate change. Prior to the AU’s membership, South Africa was the only African representative in the G20, which limited the continent’s ability to influence discussions on issues affecting its nations.

Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its development journey, with the G20 providing a crucial platform to address pressing development challenges and unlock immense growth potential through the African Continental Free Trade
Area (AfCFTA).

The African Development Bank highlights a significant $70 to $100 billion deficit in infrastructure investment across the continent, underscoring the need for a substantial 6% of GDP investment to achieve growth rates of 3% to 3.5%, well above the current global average. Collaborating with G20 partners offers Africa the opportunity to mobilize essential resources and expertise to bridge this gap.

Central to this effort is the reform of the international financial architecture to create equitable opportunities for Africa to harness its vast potential. By embracing innovative financing mechanisms, the continent can effectively address critical infrastructure gaps, unlocking pathways to inclusive and sustainable development. It is also vital to advocate for fair climate policies that recognize the diverse developmental stages of African economies, ensuring that measures such as carbon taxes do not disproportionately impact emerging nations.

To this end, investments in Africa’s energy transition are crucial. Notably, Germany, under the G20 Compact with Africa Initiative, has unveiled a R76-billion investment package aimed at facilitating Africa’s green energy transition by 2030.

Furthermore, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is a vital component of the Paris Agreement, setting a new financial target to support developing countries in their climate actions post-2025. By building on the $100 billion target established in 2009, the NCQG seeks to address persistent gaps in climate finance and provides a more ambitious and realistic framework for sustainable development.

For Africa, the commitment of developed nations to these climate goals is integral to achieving success. By ensuring adequate financing and support, Africa can not only meet its climate objectives but also harness its natural resources for sustainable growth. These initiatives highlight the importance of G20’s commitments to fostering international partnerships that drive meaningful change for Africa’s development.

And now, within the context of geopolitical changes what else can we expect from G20 as South Africa takes over from Brazil?

As South Africa prepares to take over the G20 presidency from Brazil, it will continue its commitment to being a responsible global citizen, particularly considering ongoing geopolitical changes. During its presidency, South Africa will amplify its advocacy for peaceful conflict resolution and the promotion of democratic principles and human rights on the international stage. This commitment is grounded in a foreign policy that emphasizes neutrality, respect for mediation, and the critical importance of peace.

Leveraging its leadership within the G20, South Africa aims to navigate and address pressing geopolitical tensions by fostering constructive dialogue among nations. It seeks to promote collaborative approaches that prioritize diplomacy and multilateralism, ensuring that diverse perspectives are acknowledged and that solutions are inclusive. In this way, South Africa will play a pivotal role in shaping a more stable and peaceful global environment.

South Africa has consistently been advocating for, both structural and operational, reforms at the multinational institutions, what about putting first the internal order at African Union (AU)?

Advocating for reforms at multinational institutions and strengthening the internal order of the African Union (AU) are not mutually exclusive; rather, they are complementary efforts essential for effective continental and global governance, particularly in a fractured geopolitical landscape. Enhancing the AU’s governance and operational frameworks is crucial to addressing Africa’s pressing challenges, which the AU has prioritized and encapsulated in its Agenda 2063.

Enhancing the AU’s governance and operational frameworks is crucial to addressing Africa’s pressing challenges, which the AU has prioritized and encapsulated in its Agenda 2063. Simultaneous engagement with global governance structures is necessary to ensure that they advance critical reforms, making the global governance system more representative of and responsive to the developmental needs of Africa and the Global South.

The AU’s commitment to good governance has been a priority for many years and is prominently featured in its Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. This strategic framework outlines the AU’s vision for transforming Africa into a global powerhouse and emphasizes good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice, and the rule of law among its seven aspirations.

According to the 2022 IIAG report, more than half of Africa’s population now resides in countries where overall governance has improved, reflecting the positive impact of these efforts.

As South Africa assumes the G20 presidency as a member of the AU and the Global South, it is uniquely positioned to drive the development agenda for both Africa and the Global South while advocating for essential reforms in global governance. This focus aims to address the pressing need for more inclusive and effective multilateralism that better represents the interests and aspirations of developing nations.

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ECOWAS Defends Nigeria Against Niger’s Terrorism Accusations

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ECOWAS

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has defended Nigeria and described terrorism allegations made by Niger Republic as “unfounded”, saying it is solidly behind its members.

Niger Republic had accused Nigeria and other ECOWAS members of colluding with France to destabilise the country.

However, ECOWAS in a statement on Thursday described the allegations as “unfounded”.

“The Commission of the Economic and West African States (ECOWAS) expresses deep concern over allegations being made against Nigeria and other ECOWAS member states.

“The Commission stands firmly by Nigeria and ECOWAS member states against allegations that they are sponsoring terrorism.

“For years, Nigeria has supported the peace and security of several countries not only in the West African subregion but also on the African continent.

“The recent successes recorded by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which Nigeria leads, demonstrate the country’s commitment to peace and security across the region.

“ECOWAS therefore, refutes any suggestion that such a generous and magnanimous country would become a state-sponsor of terrorism,” the statement read in part.

ECOWAS then called on all states in the region to promote dialogue and stability and refrain from making accusations that are not supported by any evidence.

The federal government also denied Niger Republic’s allegation.

The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, made the rebuttal in a statement, amid claims by Niger Republic’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, that Nigeria was working with France against his country.

The minister also debunked accusations that Nigeria was sabotaging Niger’s pipelines and agriculture.

He cited Nigeria’s active role in supporting Niger’s economic development through initiatives such as the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline and the Kano-Maradi Railway Project.

Mr Idris also urged the public to disregard Tchiani’s allegations and urged him to provide credible evidence to support his claims.

In November, President Tinubu made a state visit to France to strengthen political, economic, and cultural relations with the country.

Analysts see the visit as part of France’s search for new African allies as its influence in West Africa has waned in recent years after former colonies like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have severed military ties with France, forging partnerships with Russia.

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Can Africa Help Russia Solve its Personnel Problem?

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RusAfro Club Louis Gouend

By Louis Gouend

Russia will gain access to promising specialists, while the continent’s countries will gain educational and professional opportunities for their youth. Personnel provision is a key challenge for Russia and African countries in the context of global competition for talent. Against the backdrop of a shortage of specialists and growing demand for qualified labour, this topic has become especially relevant. Russia, faced with an acute shortage of personnel in key sectors of the economy, is slowing down the pace of development. Africa, on the other hand, is demonstrating demographic growth, which, thanks to a significant increase in the number of young able-bodied citizens, makes it a valuable partner. Cooperation in the field of education, training and employment of personnel can become an effective tool for achieving favourable results.

The combined efforts of Russia and Africa open up unique prospects. Russia can gain access to young and promising specialists, while Africa can gain educational and professional opportunities for its youth, which will help strengthen its economy. Such a partnership creates a platform for exchanging experiences, developing modern educational programs and sustainable economic cooperation.

To achieve these goals, a number of key tasks need to be solved: firstly, to define special quotas for personnel training that will take into account the current needs of both Russia and Africa. Secondly, it is necessary to introduce a contract system under which students who receive a free education are obliged to work in certain industries of Russia or their countries for several years. The importance of stimulating Russian businesses to finance the education of African students with subsequent employment in domestic companies should not be underestimated.

Along with this, it is necessary to develop solutions to provide practical experience for future specialists during their training. Organizing scholarship programs and informing young people about educational opportunities in Russia can be important steps towards attracting African students. Another significant measure will be the opening of specialized educational centres in Africa, which will strengthen bilateral personnel training.

The creation of a high-quality educational infrastructure both in Russia and in Africa is another promising step in strengthening cooperation. North African countries may be interested in opening branches of Russian schools, colleges and universities in their territories. In parallel, it is necessary to think over programs for retraining African specialists in Russia, as well as popularize the best educational opportunities with the introduction of selection systems for the most promising candidates.

Personnel interaction reflects not only educational needs but also global trends. Today, Russia is facing an aging population, and the number of pensioners will increase to 25% by 2030. Africa is becoming one of the youngest regions in the world, where about 60% of the population will be under 25 by 2050. This demographic gap requires professional rapprochement between the two regions for mutual benefit.

The digitalization of the economy will lead to the retraining of workers in 45% of modern professions. This increases the demand for qualified specialists in the fields of digital technologies, medicine, and engineering, and also expands the competition between countries for talent. Russia annually needs to supplement the IT market with 200 thousand specialists, and the need for doctors has already reached 30%. A similar situation is observed in the construction industry, where the Russian Federation needs at least 150 thousand workers per year. Africa, in terms of personnel needs, needs about 2 million teachers, a million engineers and thousands of doctors.

The problem of personnel training is acute for both Russia and Africa. In Russia, educational programs need to be updated, including disciplines related to technology and innovation. However, personnel are concentrated mainly in megacities, creating a shortage of specialists in the regions. In Africa, the main barriers remain limited access to education and a low level of digital literacy, which directly affects the level of training.

Russia and Africa have examples of successful cooperation in personnel training. In the educational sphere, more than 310 thousand Africans studied in Soviet and Russian universities, and today about 35 thousand students from Africa study in the Russian Federation. Successful projects were in infrastructure, such as the construction of a hydroelectric power station in Ethiopia with the simultaneous training of local specialists, and in medicine, where Russian universities conduct advanced training courses in Kenya.

There are prospects for growth. In the 2025/26 academic year, the Russian government intends to allocate 4816 budget places in higher educational institutions of the country for students.

Louis Gouend is the Chairman of the Commission for Work with African Diasporas of the Russian-African Club of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov

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