Economy
CBN May Change Monetary Policy Stance—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
According to FSDH Research, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon change its monetary policy stance if it follows the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 edition, noted that it expects the inflation rate in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 to remain elevated at double-digit levels. This is based on its assumption of the persistent effects of past inflationary shocks coming from sharp currency depreciations (including the parallel market exchange rate), higher electricity and fuel prices, and an accommodative monetary policy going forward.
The Fund expects an average inflation rate of 16.3% in 2017 and 14.8% in 2018. At the moment, the CBN adopts a restrictive monetary policy in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
The inflation rate in Nigeria declined for seven consecutive months to stand at 16.01% in August 2017.
FSDH Research forecasts that it will drop marginally to 15.96% in September 2017.
The IMF projects a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% and 1.9% in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The growth is based on improved oil production and a strengthened agricultural sector.
The IMF expects an average Real GDP growth of 1.6% between 2017 and 2021 while it expects an average population growth of 2.75% between the periods. The GDP growth will not be sufficient to improve the wellbeing of the populace.
According to the IMF, the medium term risks to growth in Nigeria include concerns about policy implementation, market segmentation in the foreign exchange (FX) market and banking system fragilities.
The Fund also predicts a 42% increase in public debt from N18.06trn in 2016 to N25.59trn in 2017 and a further increase to N54.96trn in 2021.
The faster growth in public debt than the growth in GDP (at current prices) will result in a consistent increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio between 2017 and 2021.
According to the IMF, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 25% in 2021 from 18% in 2016.
FSDH Research, in its Weekly Insights, said although this is below the target of 40% the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria, the burden of the interest payments on the loan may retard Nigeria’s growth potential except there are concentrated efforts to grow revenue.
On the global scene, the global upswing in economic activities that started in the second half of 2016 continues to strengthen. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.
Notable increases in investments, trade and industrial production, as well as strengthening business and consumers’ confidence should support the global growth. The IMF identified the medium term risks to global growth to include a more rapid and sizeable tightening of global financial conditions; financial turmoil in emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions.
The IMF expects oil prices (a simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil) to average US$50.3 per barrel in 2017, an increase from the US$43 per barrel in 2016. The expected increases in global activity and higher oil prices will have a positive effect on the Nigerian economy going forward.
Although FSDH Research believes the IMF growth forecast for the Nigerian economy is conservative, the FGN must intensify efforts to implement policies that will stimulate investments in the Nigerian economy. This is necessary to accelerate inclusive growth.
Friendly policies in agro-allied industries, agriculture, telecommunications, power, solid minerals, real estate and manufacturing are important to jumpstart the economy.
Economy
UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.
Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.
Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”
The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.
Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.
“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”
On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.
“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”
Economy
MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).
The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.
With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.
At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.
The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.
“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.
Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.
“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.
Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.
“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.
“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.
Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.
He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.
Economy
NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.
Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.
Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.
The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”
According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”
“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”
Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.
He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.
Mr Oyedele also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.
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