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Economy

CBN May Change Monetary Policy Stance—FSDH

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cbn benchmark interest rates

By Dipo Olowookere

According to FSDH Research, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon change its monetary policy stance if it follows the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 edition, noted that it expects the inflation rate in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 to remain elevated at double-digit levels. This is based on its assumption of the persistent effects of past inflationary shocks coming from sharp currency depreciations (including the parallel market exchange rate), higher electricity and fuel prices, and an accommodative monetary policy going forward.

The Fund expects an average inflation rate of 16.3% in 2017 and 14.8% in 2018. At the moment, the CBN adopts a restrictive monetary policy in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The inflation rate in Nigeria declined for seven consecutive months to stand at 16.01% in August 2017.

FSDH Research forecasts that it will drop marginally to 15.96% in September 2017.

The IMF projects a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% and 1.9% in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The growth is based on improved oil production and a strengthened agricultural sector.

The IMF expects an average Real GDP growth of 1.6% between 2017 and 2021 while it expects an average population growth of 2.75% between the periods. The GDP growth will not be sufficient to improve the wellbeing of the populace.

According to the IMF, the medium term risks to growth in Nigeria include concerns about policy implementation, market segmentation in the foreign exchange (FX) market and banking system fragilities.

The Fund also predicts a 42% increase in public debt from N18.06trn in 2016 to N25.59trn in 2017 and a further increase to N54.96trn in 2021.

The faster growth in public debt than the growth in GDP (at current prices) will result in a consistent increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio between 2017 and 2021.

According to the IMF, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 25% in 2021 from 18% in 2016.

FSDH Research, in its Weekly Insights, said although this is below the target of 40% the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria, the burden of the interest payments on the loan may retard Nigeria’s growth potential except there are concentrated efforts to grow revenue.

On the global scene, the global upswing in economic activities that started in the second half of 2016 continues to strengthen. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.

Notable increases in investments, trade and industrial production, as well as strengthening business and consumers’ confidence should support the global growth. The IMF identified the medium term risks to global growth to include a more rapid and sizeable tightening of global financial conditions; financial turmoil in emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions.

The IMF expects oil prices (a simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil) to average US$50.3 per barrel in 2017, an increase from the US$43 per barrel in 2016. The expected increases in global activity and higher oil prices will have a positive effect on the Nigerian economy going forward.

Although FSDH Research believes the IMF growth forecast for the Nigerian economy is conservative, the FGN must intensify efforts to implement policies that will stimulate investments in the Nigerian economy. This is necessary to accelerate inclusive growth.

Friendly policies in agro-allied industries, agriculture, telecommunications, power, solid minerals, real estate and manufacturing are important to jumpstart the economy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

FG Saves N6trn in Fuel Subsidy Payments in 2025—NMDPRA Chief

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Mr Saidu Mohammed, has revealed that bold economic reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration saved the country over N6 trillion on petroleum product imports in just the first nine months of 2025.

Mr Mohammed disclosed this while speaking at the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja, said the savings were the result of full downstream deregulation, harmonisation of the forex market, and the trading of crude and petroleum products in Naira.

He added that these bold moves have created stability in the downstream petroleum market, encouraged investment, and ensured a sufficient supply of petroleum products across the country.

The NMDPRA boss also revealed that the nation’s refining capacity is expected to surpass 1 million barrels per stream day (bpsd) in the medium term.

He said the surge in domestic refining capacity is being driven by a combination of new refinery investments, the rehabilitation of existing Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited refineries, and strategic private-sector participation.

According to him, the planned investments in other refineries, along with issued Licences to Establish (LTEs) for new facilities, will continue to expand Nigeria’s refining footprint, reducing dependence on imported products and stabilising domestic supply.

He said: “For decades, our downstream value chain has been associated with negative sectoral performance indicators such as infrastructural deficit, weak market structures, sub-optimal supply chain efficiency, inadequate investment, poor regulatory compliance, and unacceptable operational safety and environmental indices.

“Today, I am pleased to affirm that this narrative is rapidly changing and that the sector is truly witnessing the early but irreversible signs of a renaissance-type transformation that is driven by bold reform; enabled by investment; and sustained by effective market and operational regulatory enablement.

“In the few years of the operationalisation of the new legal framework of the Oil and Gas sector in Nigeria (PIA 2021), Nigeria’s downstream sector has evolved into a fully liberalised market and is no longer defined by scarcity and supply uncertainty.

Supply stability has consistently ensured sufficiency of all Petroleum products. The pricing structure of the downstream sector is becoming more driven by the fundamentals of the market and generally attaining the stability level required for encouraging investment in this expansive sector of the economy.

“The supply chain landscape of the sector, which depended significantly on import of nearly all Petroleum Products for a long time, is rapidly transforming with growing supply through the nation’s domestic refining capacity, expanding gas-based alternative fuels, improved logistics, and increased private-sector participation.

“At the heart of this transformation stands the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the largest single-train refinery in the world with an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd), which is currently contributing a significant portion and in some cases 100 per cent of our domestic requirement of Petroleum Products. The optimal operationalisation of the plant’s installed capacity and future upscaling of the plant is undoubtedly needed to fulfil the national aspirations of making Nigeria a regional and continental energy hub.

“The capacity for enhanced domestic supply of Petroleum product in Nigeria will continue to grow as the planned investments in our refinery sector mature. We are optimistic that the issued Licences to Establish (LTEs) refineries, which are being progressed through various levels of completion, coupled with the rehabilitation of the NNPCL refineries, will improve the overall installed refining capacity in Nigeria to well over 1 million bpsd in the medium term.

“The bold economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu have created the renaissance that the downstream sector is enjoying and would continue to leverage upon for sustained sectoral growth in the future. The cumulative impact of the full deregulation of the downstream sector, the harmonisation of the forex market, the incentivization and deepening the use of gas and the trading of crude and product in Naira has reduced the fiscal economic losses of importing Petroleum Product by over N6 trillion in the 1st nine months of 2025.”

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Nigeria Targets 10bscfd Gas Production in Next Four Years

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Gas Flare Commercialization

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government says Nigeria is targeting gas production of 10 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) by 2030, positioning natural gas as a cornerstone of national energy security and economic prosperity.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Mr Ekperikpe Ekpo, said this while delivering a ministerial address at the ninth Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026 in Abuja.

The Minister said the government’s efforts were yielding tangible results, with Nigeria’s gas production maintaining an upward trajectory in 2025, averaging between 7.5 and 7.6bscfd.

He disclosed that domestic gas supply exceeded two bscfd for the first time, marking a historic milestone for power generation, industrial use and household consumption.

The Minister also said significant progress in environmental performance, with gas flaring reduced to some of the lowest levels recorded in recent years, in line with Nigeria’s commitment to end routine gas flaring by 2030.

He noted that investor confidence in the gas sector had been strengthened, citing Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in key upstream gas projects supported by improved regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

“Across the midstream and downstream segments, pipeline infrastructure, processing facilities and gas-to-power projects have expanded, improving connectivity, boosting domestic utilisation and supporting cleaner cooking solutions, job creation and industrial stability.

“Under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, government policy prioritises the expansion of domestic gas infrastructure while strengthening Nigeria’s presence in regional and global gas markets.

“This includes facilitating investments in gas processing, storage and distribution, as well as accelerating gas-to-power projects aimed at addressing energy poverty and enhancing industrial competitiveness,” he said.

The minister emphasised that Nigeria’s energy future was inseparable from peace, partnership and shared responsibility, calling on governments, investors, development partners, host communities and civil society to move from dialogue to decisive action.

“Our collective task is to build an energy system that powers prosperity, strengthens stability and supports regional integration,” he said.

He said Nigeria’s energy strategy is firmly aligned with global energy transition realities while responding to Africa’s unique development challenges, including widespread energy poverty, limited industrial capacity and inadequate access to reliable power.

“While the world moves towards lower-carbon systems, Africa must pursue a transition that is not only green, but also just, inclusive and development-driven.

“Nigeria is leveraging its abundant natural gas resources to balance climate responsibility with economic development, positioning gas as the backbone of industrial growth, job creation and expanded energy access,” he said.

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Economy

Transcorp, DMO, CardinalStone, Chapel Hill Denham, Others Win at NGX Made of Africa Awards

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NGX Made of Africa Awards

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The 2025 Made of Africa Awards, hosted by Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, paraded an array of winners, including brokers, issuing houses, trustees, fund managers, listed companies, and other market participants.

The event was to reward excellence in value delivery, compliance, and market impact, with Transcorp, the Debt Management Office, CardinalStone, Chapel Hill Denham, and MTN Nigeria Communications as recipients.

Business Post reports that the other recipients were First Trustees Limited as the Best Trustees in Terms of Deal Value, Legend Internet as the Market Debut Excellence award winner.

Further, CardinalStone Securities emerged as Equity Trader of the Year and Broker of the Year, Capital Express Securities won ETPs Trader of the Year, and Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers was named Fixed Income Trader of the Year. Chapel Hill Denham received awards for Fund Manager with the Largest Listed Fund Size and Market Operator with the Highest Value of Foreign Portfolio Investment Transactions.

Mainstreet Capital and APT Securities and Funds jointly won Issuing House with the Highest Number of Primary Market Equity Transactions, while Anchoria Advisory Services led in corporate bond issuances. Dangote Cement was named Best Issuer in Terms of Fixed Income Listings, BUA Cement received the award for Most Compliant Listed Company, and Transnational Corporation Plc was honoured for Capital Market Excellence in Equity. Network Capital was named the Most Compliant Trading License Holder, United Capital Securities won the Best Sponsoring Trading License Holder and Banwo and Ighodalo received recognition for legal advisory value in capital market transactions.

Special recognition went to the Debt Management Office for fixed income market development and to the Capital Markets Correspondence Association of Nigeria for capital market reporting, and Lambeth Capital/Bamboo Systems Technology were recognised for onboarding the highest number of new retail investor accounts.

The chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, said the awards underscore the role of market stakeholders in strengthening investor confidence and improving market standards.

“Their achievements set a benchmark for performance, integrity and innovation across the capital market,” he said, adding that sustaining this level of discipline and transparency is essential to maintaining the trust of both domestic and international investors in Nigeria’s financial markets.

The chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “Operational efficiency and cooperation across the ecosystem are increasingly important as trading activity diversifies and investor expectations continue to rise.”

On his part, the Executive Commissioner for Operations at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Bola Ajomale, said the awards underscore the value of compliance and transparency in market development.

“Recognition through the Made of Africa Awards reinforces the importance of adherence to market rules and standards. When operators demonstrate accountability and professionalism, it strengthens investor confidence, ensures market integrity, and supports sustainable growth across Nigeria’s financial markets,” he said.

The chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said recognising strong performance across the ecosystem supports deeper market participation and long-term capital mobilisation.

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