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Crude Oil Climbs as OPEC+ ‘Surprisingly’ Raises Output Quota

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Crude Oil Production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to pump more over the next two months, much to the surprise of the market.

At a meeting yesterday, OPEC+ said it will increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August, 200,000 barrels per day more than scheduled under a supply agreement.

This is as it continues to bring forward the end of the historic output cuts OPEC+ implemented during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As this news filtered in, the price of Brent crude gained $1.93 or 1.66 per cent to trade at $118.20 per barrel as the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by $2.29 or 1.99 per cent to $117.50 per barrel.

OPEC+ has been slowly returning the nearly 10 million barrels per day it agreed to pull from the market in April 2020. In recent months, production has risen between 400,000 and 432,000 barrels per day each month.

This is as Russian production begins to drop because of Western sanctions.

Governments have been calling on producers to raise output in an effort to dampen oil’s surging price but the cartel led by Saudi Arabia dismissed requests to increase production beyond the long-standing quota agreed with Russia and other non-OPEC producers.

Now, concerns that sky-high prices could tip the world into recession appear to have prompted a rethink.

The administration of President Joe Biden of the United States welcomed the “important decision from OPEC+,” and highlighted Saudi Arabia’s role as the group’s largest producer in achieving consensus.

“This announcement accelerates the end of the current quota arrangement that has been in place since July of last year and brings forward the monthly production increase that was previously planned to take place in September,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.

However, with difficulties for some countries like Nigeria to ramp up production, it will likely not abate the tight supply of the market.

This is as up to three million barrels that are expected to be lost from Russia as nations around the world ramp up sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

EU leaders on Monday agreed to ban 90 per cent of Russian crude by the end of the year as part of the bloc’s sixth sanctions package on Russia since the late February invasion.

Support also came after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported today an inventory draw of 5.1 million barrels for the week to May 27.

This compared with a draw of 1 million barrels for the previous week.

At 414.7 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are some 15 per cent below the five-year average for this time of the year.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

APM Terminals to Invest $600m in Nigeria’s Maritime Sector

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.

On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.

According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.

President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.

He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.

He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.

Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.

He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.

He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.

He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.

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Economy

Dangote Sues FG Over Fuel Import Licences

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Fifth Crude Cargo Dangote Refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to ‌marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.

The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.

Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.

Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.

The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.

The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.

Dangote ⁠ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.

Nigeria ⁠has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels ⁠per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.

Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.

The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.

Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.69% in April as Middle East Crisis Persists

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hedge against inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.

The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.

According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.

Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.

It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.

The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.

The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.

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