Economy
Kenya Retains Interest Rates At 10% To Boost Economy
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has announced that it is retaining its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 10 percent.
This decision was reached after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on Monday, November 28, 2016, to review the outcome of its previous policy decisions and the recent economic developments.
Business Post gathered that the MPC meeting took place against the backdrop of increased uncertainties in the domestic and global economies.
It explained that it retained the rates due to the prevailing domestic and global economic uncertainties and the need for more conclusive information on these developments.
According to Chairman of the MPC, Dr Patrick Njoroge, it was noted that the country’s month-on-month overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 6.5 percent in October 2016 from 6.3 percent in September.
This, it was learnt, was caused largely due to changes in the prices of food items such as tomatoes and sugar.
However, the overall inflation remained within the government target range.
Also, the month-on-month non-food-non-fuel (NFNF) increased to 5.4 percent in October from 5.1 percent in September, reflecting increases in the prices of items in the clothing and footwear CPI category and the impact of the excise tax introduced in December 2015.
The 3 month annualized NFNF inflation rose slightly in October, an indication of mild demand pressures in the economy.
The MPC further observed that the foreign exchange market has been relatively stable despite the volatility in the global financial market following the US elections and the seasonal increase in demand for foreign exchange by corporate to finance dividend payments.
It said the foreign exchange market continues to be supported by the narrowing of the current account deficit mainly due to lower imported petroleum prices, lower imports of machinery and equipment, and resilient diaspora remittances. Tourism earnings and export receipts from tea and horticulture have stabilized.
The MPC said the CBK’s foreign exchange reserves which currently stand at $7,305 million (4.8 months of import cover) together with the Precautionary Arrangements with the international Monetary Fund (equivalent to $1.5 billion) have continued to provide adequate buffers against short-term shocks.
But the CBK said it was working closely with the National Treasury to ensure coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. Execution of the government’s domestic borrowing plan for FY2016/17 continues to support stability in the market.
It was disclosed that banking system liquidity and its distribution have stabilized. The average commercial banks’ liquidity ratio increased to 43.6 percent in October from 41.9 percent in August 2016 and the average capital adequacy ratio stood at 19.1 percent in October.
The CBK continues to closely monitor credit and liquidity risks in the sector. Continued interest of foreign banks to enter the local market indicates confidence in the banking sector.
Following the introduction of interest rate caps on back lending and deposits, the Committee noted that the available data were inadequate to facilitate a conclusive analysis of their impact on monetary policy and the overall economy. The CBK will continue to closely monitor developments in this respect.
The MPC also observed that private sector credit growth had stabilized at 4.6 percent in October. The slower growth witnessed over the last several months was found to be largely an outcome of structural factors in the banking sector rather than monetary policy.
However, there is no evidence that this is having a negative impact on economic growth.
The performance of the economy in the second quarter of 2016 was strong, growing by 6.2 percent compared to 5.9 percent in a similar period of 2015.
The MPC Market Perception Survey conducted in November 2016 showed mixed expectations. While the non-bank private sector remains optimistic for higher growth in 2016, banks were cautious as they continue to monitor the potential impact of the capping of interest rates.
Also, global growth prospects remain fragile on account of uncertainties in part due to the impact of Brexit and political developments in the U.S. Uncertainty relating to the tightening of US monetary policy and its implications for global capital flows remain a concern.
The Committee concluded that inflationary pressures were mild and inflation will remain within the Government target range in the short term.
By Dipo Olowookere
The portfolios of investors at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited increased by 0.34 per cent on Monday on the back of buying interest in consumer goods stocks and others.
Business Post observed bargain-hunting activities across the key sectors of the bourse, though the industrial goods index came under profit-taking, causing it to close lower by 0.57 per cent.
However, this did not affect the general outcome of Customs like it did last Friday.
The consumer goods industry went up by 1.31 per cent, the commodity space rose by 0.84 per cent, the energy counter appreciated by 0.69 per cent, the insurance sector grew by 0.52 per cent, and the banking index improved by 0.04 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 363.13 points to 106,116.18 points from 105,753.05 points and the market capitalisation increased by N229 billion to N66.694 trillion from N66.465 trillion.
Investor sentiment was bullish yesterday as the bourse ended with 47 price gainers and 16 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index.
International Breweries soared by 10.00 per cent to close at N8.47, Legend Internet appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N7.50, Cadbury Nigeria advanced by 9.96 pr cent to N29.25, Fidson grew by 9.95 per cent to N20.45, and Eterna chalked up 9.90 per cent to sell for N43.85.
Conversely, Livestock Feeds lost 10.00 per cent to settle at N8.55, Aradel declined y 9.86 per cent to N448.00, Tripple Gee fell by 9.60 per cent to N1.79, John Holt depreciated by 7.94 per cent to N5.80, and Linkage Assurance slumped by 6.15 per cent to N1.22.
During the session, the market participants traded 500.6 million stocks valued at N12.1 billion in 17,637 deals versus the 428.1 million stocks worth N20.2 billion in 14,284 deals, representing a shortfall in the trading value by 40.10 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and number of deals by 16.94 per cent and 23.47 per cent, respectively.
Access Holdings was the most active equity for the day with a turnover of 60.9 million units valued at N1.2 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 56.1 million units worth N1.1 billion, UBA exchanged 34.5 million units for N1.2 billion, GTCO transacted 33.5 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Nigerian Breweries sold 28.3 million units worth N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of the Brent crude oil grade declined by $1.01, or 1.5 per cent on Monday to $65.86 per barrel as economic worries from the US-China trade war pressured demand.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was sold at $62.05 a barrel after it went down by 97 cents or 1.5 per cent amid conflicting signals from US President Donald Trump and the Chinese government over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that could weaken global growth.
According to market analysts, the US-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, and has overshadowed other developments, including nuclear talks between the US and Iran and possible friction within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
On Monday, China lashed out at the US’ negotiating tactics, with Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, saying: “They make up bargaining chips out of thin air, bully and go back on their words.”
The Chinese official was responding to President Trump’s statement earlier in the day that the US would not lower tariffs on China unless it offered up “something substantial”.
This came as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back President Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were underway.
Amid this, crude oil inventories in China rose to the highest in almost three years in March, suggesting demand growth was lagging behind refinery processing rates, which hit a one-year high last month as Chinese oil processors took advantage of cheap Iranian and Russian crude.
It was reported that 1.74 million barrels daily went into storage last month in China, citing official data from China, making this the highest rate of storage inflows since June 2023.
Some OPEC+ members are expected to suggest that the group accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5.
Earlier this month, there was an unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day of oil in May, which was three times more than the group originally planned.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has announced a 24.75 per cent increase in the value of the country’s non-oil exports, reaching a total of $1.791 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
It stated that the amount surpassed the $1.436 billion generated in the first quarter of 2024.
The Executive Director of the council, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, disclosed the figures while addressing the journalists in Abuja on Monday.
She said the significant growth reflects the resilience and diversification of Nigeria’s export sector beyond crude oil, a shift aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on oil revenue.
According to her, the surge in non-oil exports was driven by increased economic activity in the Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Solid Minerals sectors.
On the US 14 per cent trade tariff, the council says it was positive for the country, adding that it was an opportunity to focus on value addition and increased competitiveness in the global market.
Recall that Nigeria has reiterated plans to boost its non-oil revenues with the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, saying the country was stepping up its diversification efforts.
Earlier this month, the Trade Minister said the nation would tackle this challenge with pragmatism, aiming to boost non-oil exports and strengthen economic resilience under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
Mrs Oduwole had said the US remains a key partner, with bilateral trade reaching N31.1 trillion from 2015 to 2024.
The measures taken by the US presents destabilising challenges to price competitiveness and market access, especially in emerging and value-added sectors vital to our diversification agenda,” the minister explained.
“Government is implementing a range of interventions in policy, financing, infrastructure, and diplomacy to help Nigerian businesses remain competitive amidst regional and global tariff hikes,” Mrs Oduwole said as she outlined Nigeria’s response.
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