Economy
Naira, Fuel Scarcity Sharply Weakens Nigerian Business Activity
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
For the first time in many months, the Nigerian business activity index fell into the negative region in February 2023 due to the scarcity of fuel and Naira in the financial system.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) redesigned the N200, N500, and N1,000 banknotes last year and gave Nigerians till January 31, 2023, to swap their old notes for the new ones.
However, after calls from various quarters, the deadline was shifted to February 10, 2023.
Two days before the expiration, three state governments went to the supreme court to stop the implementation of the policy designed to reduce the amount of cash in the system.
The apex bank asked the parties to maintain the status quo pending the determination of the matter, and before the presidential election last Saturday, many Nigerians and businesses found it difficult to get cash to carry out transactions.
In its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February 2023, Stanbic IBTC Bank said it had a reading of 44.7 points compared with the 53.5 points achieved in January 2023.
Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration.
In the report, it was observed that cash shortages across the Nigerian economy had a severe impact on the private sector midway through the first quarter of the year. Substantial declines were seen in both output and new orders, while firms scaled back their purchasing activity and employment.
Companies were also impacted by shortages of fuel, which added to price pressures and led to supplier delivery delays.
The 44.7 points recorded last month ended the 31-month sequence of expansion. The decline in operating conditions was the sharpest since the survey began in January 2014, excluding the opening wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020.
The most severe impacts of cash shortages were seen with regard to output and new orders, which both fell substantially as customers were often unable to secure the funds to commit to spending.
The decline in new orders was the first since June 2020, while the fall in output ended a seven-month sequence of growth. In both cases, the reductions were the most pronounced in the survey’s history, apart from during the opening wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
With new orders and output falling, companies reduced their input buying and staffing levels accordingly. The declines were the first in 32 and 25 months, respectively. The decrease in purchasing reflected not only a drop in customer demand but also difficulties for companies to find the funds to pay for items.
Alongside cash shortages, the private sector was also impacted by a scarcity of fuel in February. This had a notable impact on suppliers’ delivery times, which lengthened for the first time in close to six-and-a-half years and to the greatest extent since April 2016.
The slump in PMI shows that while the central bank has managed to reduce the amount of cash held outside the banking system to a record low, it has come at a cost to the economy.
“The lingering cash shortages will likely continue to dampen economic activities and could depress economic growth” this quarter, said the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, adding that the Nigerian economy could grow at 3 per cent in 2023 due to the challenges.
“Furthermore, persistent fuel shortages from the beginning of the year saw petrol pump prices increase, which both increased production costs for firms and led to supplier delivery delays. Sure, the lingering cash shortages will likely continue to dampen economic activities and could depress economic growth in Q1:23,” he stated.
In turn, shortages led to a rise in fuel costs which were widely mentioned as having been behind a further marked increase in purchase prices.
Higher raw material costs and currency weakness were also factors pushing up purchase prices. The rate of inflation was the softest since June 2020 but marked nonetheless and stronger than the series average. Staff costs also rose again in February, but at a modest pace.
The passing on of higher input costs to customers resulted in a further sharp rise in output prices, albeit one that was the weakest in four months.
Hopes that economic conditions will improve, alongside business expansion and investment plans, led to confidence in the year-ahead outlook for business activity. The sentiment was at a five-month high but still relatively muted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), a World Bank financer, is ramping up efforts to unlock private capital for Africa, with plans to more than double its annual guarantee issuance on the continent to $6.4 billion over the next three and a half years.
The move is expected to catalyse as much as $23 billion in private sector investment across key sectors, including energy infrastructure, food security, trade finance, digital connectivity and sovereign debt restructuring.
The expansion underscores a growing shift among development finance institutions toward deploying guarantees as a primary tool for de-risking investments in frontier markets and attracting private capital flows into economies often viewed as high-risk.
MIGA’s Managing Director, Mr Tsutomu Yamamoto, said the scaled-up programme would play a critical role in mobilising investment, creating jobs and strengthening economic resilience across African countries.
He noted that the agency’s instruments, ranging from political risk insurance to credit enhancement, debt swaps and portfolio guarantees, are designed to reduce investor exposure and improve project bankability.
The guarantee push will continue to focus on strategic sectors such as power grids, local banking systems, agriculture and food supply chains, as well as digital infrastructure, all of which are seen as foundational to long-term economic growth across the continent.
Although the agency did not disclose specific projects in its pipeline, it said the expansion reflects rising demand for risk-sharing mechanisms in emerging markets, particularly as governments grapple with tight fiscal conditions and limited access to affordable financing.
The development follows a broader restructuring within the World Bank Group nearly two years ago, which consolidated guarantee operations to scale up private sector investment mobilisation globally.
MIGA has already played a role in pioneering debt swap transactions in the Ivory Coast and Angola, while also supporting food security initiatives in Kenya and backing more than 100 energy projects across emerging markets. Its guarantees have further underpinned lending operations in countries such as Ghana and Zambia, helping to stabilise financial systems and sustain credit flows.
The agency’s latest push reflects a wider evolution in development finance strategy, where guarantees are increasingly used to stretch limited public funds and crowd in private investors. By lowering perceived risks, these instruments make large-scale infrastructure and development projects more attractive to commercial financiers who would otherwise stay on the sidelines.
This shift is gaining urgency as many advanced economies scale back aid budgets while simultaneously seeking stronger economic ties and resource access in Africa.
In response, multilateral lenders are leaning more heavily on innovative financial tools like guarantees to bridge funding gaps and sustain development momentum.
MIGA’s broader ambition is to help lift the World Bank Group’s global guarantee issuance to $20 billion annually by 2030, positioning guarantees as a central pillar in financing sustainable development across emerging markets.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further appreciated by 0.58 per cent on Tuesday, May 19, buoyed by strong investor appetite for unlisted securities.
Data from the bourse showed that the volume of securities traded during the session ballooned by 365,661.8 per cent to 1.9 billion units compared with the previous day’s 514,142 units, as the value of transactions surged by 30,433.9 per cent to N5.3 billion from the preceding session’s N17.4 million, and the number of deals increased by 22.2 per cent, as these trades were executed in 60 deals versus the 27 deals recorded a day earlier.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 60.9 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
During the session, there were three price gainers and one price loser, led by Afriland Properties Plc, which went down by 5 Kobo to trade at N16.90 per share versus the previous day’s N16.95 per share.
But FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc appreciated by N12.45 to N151.79 per unit from N146.55 per unit, CSCS Plc expanded by 62 Kobo to N70.62 per share from N70.00 per share, and UBN Property Plc added 20 Kobo to close at N2.24 per unit versus N2.04 per unit.
At the close of business, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 24.05 points to 4,157.75 points from 4,133.70 points, and the market capitalisation chalked up N14.39 billion to close at N2.487 trillion compared with Monday’s N2.473 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, May 19, by 17 Kobo or 0.01 per cent to trade at N1,373.87/$1 compared to the previous day’s N1,373.70/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window by 5 Kobo to close at N1,839.61/£1 versus Monday’s rate of N1,839.66/£1, and gained N5.97 against the Euro to settle at N1,594.52/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,600.49/€1.
Data from GTBank FX bench showed that the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar yesterday by N2 to sell at N1,381/$1 versus N1,383, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,390/$1.
The outcome across the board came as Nigeria’s external reserves have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, which may provide some support for FX market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and broader macroeconomic stability efforts.
Currency traders and investors are expected to continue monitoring CBN policy direction, foreign portfolio inflows, crude oil earnings, and external reserve performance as key indicators influencing the naira’s trajectory in the coming months.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting began on Tuesday with announcements of decisions expected later on Wednesday after inflation ticked up in April.
In the cryptocurrency market, major digital coins were down as traders focused on macro data, oil prices, and inflation, while the US Senate advanced a measure that could force President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval for the Iran war.
Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.3 per cent to $1.36, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 0.9 per cent to $0.1034, Cardano (ADA) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $0.2499, Ethereum (ETH) declined by 0.5 per cent to $2,124.02, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 0.5 per cent to $84.67, TRON (TRX) dipped by 0.4 per cent to $0.3551, and Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 0.1 per cent to $641.39.
On the flip side, Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated by 0.3 per cent to $77,114.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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