Economy
Recession: Mall Developers, Tenants Consider Rent Renegotiation
By Maureen Ihua-Maduenyi
With the current economic crisis creating challenges for all sectors of the economy, the country’s rapidly growing retail sector is struggling.
Apart from a few malls, most retail facilities in the country were funded by private equity firms that got their funding mainly from foreign sources; and by virtue of this, they are currently facing a lot of challenges as many of their tenants who sell mostly foreign products, are finding it difficult to stock up or fit out in new malls due to forex scarcity.
Findings by our correspondent indicate that many tenants are no longer paying rents in some of the big and expensive malls, because the rents are high due to the naira to dollar exchange rate, and most of the retailers don’t have enough liquidity to stock up due to the forex restrictions, high costs and problems associated with importation.
According to a source, who did not want to be quoted, some tenants owe as much as 15 months’ rent and developers cannot ask them to vacate the malls as empty shops in a mall is an indication of a failed project.
Our correspondent gathered that the landlords were becoming more creative to keep their tenants in business and the malls functioning.
It was gathered that one of such creative ways was to ask tenants who owed rents to pay the service charges.
“If the rent is paid and the service charge is not paid, it becomes the landlord’s headache to settle the service charge. So, he will rather the tenants pay their service charges to keep the malls running,” a source told our correspondent.
An estate surveyor and valuer, Mr Rogba Orimolade, said majority of the functioning retail facilities were struggling to survive.
“A lot of these retailers are those who rely on not just forex, but goods that they bring in from overseas, and they are struggling. The market itself is in recession, so a lot of the malls are caught in the middle. Some of the tenants are leaving; some are trying to adjust and see what kind of local products they can stock,” he said.
According to Mr Orimolade, investors are also trying to make tough decisions such as pegging rents in such a way that tenants will not be discouraged, with some landlords already giving discounts, while some are reducing their rates against the Central Bank of Nigeria’s naira to dollar rate.
He explained, “There are so many ways that a lot of promoters of these malls are becoming creative with the way they ask tenants to pay their rents and it is only realistic they do that. From the way things are going, most of the malls that are going to be coming into the market now will source their funding locally and ensure that the rate they are charging is strictly in naira.
“Foreign investors also have to adapt, that is the reality. Sourcing for offshore funds is no longer realistic.”
He said that apart from facilities such as the Ikeja Mall and The Palms, both in Lagos, that were doing well in spite of the economic realities, because of their locations where retailers were eager to get shops, many others were groaning as a result of the economic crisis.
Mr Orimolade said, “Apart from some whose promoters who were able to read the market on time and focus more on Nigerian companies to take up spaces, many malls in Lagos and other parts of the country, especially those built with offshore funds, are struggling and have 30 to 40 per cent of their shops vacant.
“Their projections were that a lot of those foreign companies would take up space but those companies backed out, some even relocated from Nigeria.”
Rents in malls across the country go for as high as between $100 and $120 per square metre monthly; and are mostly paid quarterly, with many of the retailers taking spaces from 60 square metres upwards.
The Consultant, Retail Leasing, Broll Nigeria, Mrs Lola Toye, said business had slowed down in the retail market because of the economy and the cost of products.
She, however, said that even before the recession, some retailers had been struggling due to the kind of products they were selling.
Mrs Toye said, “Malls are not really empty, they may not be full either, but tenants not keeping up happened even when the economy was booming. There is low spending power, so people are cautious of what they spend money on. They now focus on essential things rather than non-essentials.
“Those of us that are letting offices are also experiencing this. There is an impact, but developers are still building despite this. Things are not shutting down, people believe that the economy will turn around shortly and when it does, they will be ready to take in new tenants.
“Landlords are making concessions; those who borrowed in dollars and need to pay back their loans need to do that in dollars. Landlords need to recoup their investments, while tenants also need to make money. So, both tenants and landlords are getting more creative.”
According to Mrs Toye, there is still a huge demand for shops but it is taking longer to fill the malls than it was in the past and landlords are looking at charging rents annually instead of quarterly.
“With this, they don’t have to worry about any kind of fluctuation in the currency; within 12 months, things can turn around. Some malls that are not based on dollar investment can charge in naira. We are looking at what suits the tenant and what suits the landlord. We are optimistic and very cautious too,” she added.
Malls developer and the Chief Executive Officer of Top Services Limited, Mr Tokunbo Omisore, said concession had always been considered between landlords and tenants.
“I cannot, for instance, charge rent at the rate of the parallel market and it has been on for a long time,” he said.
The Founding Partner, Bode Adediji Partnership, an estate surveying and valuation firm, Mr Bode Adediji, said the biggest problem in the retail sector remained the payment of rents in dollars.
He added, “Charging tenants on dollar basis is okay in the interim, but it is not sustainable; there will always be an impact of the rent on the income to be generated by tenants. All over the world, rental charges are based on an understanding between landlords and tenants; but in Nigeria, it is totally absent. Landlords think they matter more, the mind-set is either you can afford it or not.
“The business model for a shopping complex should never be based on the short or medium-term; it should be on a long-term basis always.”
According to Mr Adediji, the way out of the current problem is for rental and lease agreements between shopping mall tenants and landlords to be based on realistic and sustainable parameters.
Economy
Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.
The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.
The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.
On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.
In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.
In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.
These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.
Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.
Economy
Aradel Holdings Acquires Equity Stake in Chappal Energies
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.
This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).
Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.
Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.
As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).
The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.
In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.
The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.
“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.
“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.
“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.
“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.
Economy
Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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