Feature/OPED
2023: TVCP and Leadership Recruitment
By Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi
It is common knowledge that while Nigerians and, of course, the global community were on Sunday, January 1, 2023, celebrating the ‘arrival’ of a brand new year, former President Olusegun Obasanjo released to Nigerians his regular trademark Open Letter, where he, among other remarks, endorsed the Labour Party candidate in the forthcoming general elections in the country, Peter Obi, describing him as a presidential candidate that has the edge over others in terms of knowledge, discipline, vitality and character, and, therefore, admonished Nigerians not allow opportunity that Peter Obi represents in the February 25 presidential poll slip through their hands.
As expected, the development has elicited reactions from political stakeholders and the general public. While some hailed the action of the former president, others viewed it with scepticism. The boundaries between both spheres have shifted back and forth for some days. In some cases, they have ended up igniting a lot of tension.
For instance, the supporters of Peter Obi believe that the insight that flows from Obasanjo’s letter remains credible and encouraged other past leaders to emulate him.
On their part, APC Presidential Campaign Council sees the endorsement as worthless because, in their estimation, the former president does not possess any political goodwill or leverage anywhere in Nigeria to make anyone win a councillorship election, let alone a presidential election.
The Atiku/Okowa Presidential Campaign Organization shares similar opinions with APC. To them, the support for the LP presidential candidate by Obasanjo was his personal wish, which did not reflect the opinion or position of the overwhelming majority of Nigerians across the country.
Indeed, while the debate about the viability or otherwise of the endorsement rages, there are, however, some silent but salient points that Nigerians must not fail to remember.
First and very fundamental is that it takes an illuminated mind to write a good letter, and it is, therefore, important that readers focus more on the message and not the messenger, as no one is infallible.
In the same way, one of the intrinsic privileges participatory democracy and the election of leaders confer on all is the enjoyment of access to the free flow of information. It gives each individual more standing within the society without reference to a class or fortune- to claim a measure of dignity equal to all others and empowers individuals to scrutinize the use of power by those in government so as to ascertain if we are the one using power or whether power is using us.
Considering this fact, I found nothing out-of-ordinary to warrant the ripple reactions that characterized Obasanjo’s recent use of analytical methods to advise Nigerians, particularly the youths, on the forthcoming general election.
Very germane, aside from enjoying the constitutional backing as enshrined in the nations’ 1999 constitution (as amended), to express his opinion, the open letter provided an honest roadmap that will assist Nigerians to elect as President someone that will restore the political and socioeconomic health of the nation.
Obasanjo captured it this way, “I will, without prejudice, fear or ill-will, make bold to say that there are four major factors to watch out for in a leader you will consider to hoist on yourself and on the rest of Nigerians in the coming election and they are what I call TVCP: Track record of ability and performance; Vision that is authentic, honest and realistic; Character and attributes of a lady and a gentleman who are children of God and obedient to God; and Physical and mental capability with the soundness of mind as it is a very taxing and tasking assignment at the best of times and more so it is at the most difficult time that we are.”
More than anything else, Obasanjo’s latest letter, in my view, further confirms that leadership holds the key to unlocking the transformation question in Nigeria, as only a sincere and selfless leader and a politically and economically restructured polity brought about by national consensus can unleash the social and economic forces that can ensure the total transformation of the country and propel her to true greatness.
Supporting the above assertion is the elder statesman’s encouragement of Nigeria to jettison in the country’s leadership recruitment system that has bred corruption, inefficiency, primitive capital accumulation and socially excluded the vast majority of our people, and in its place, work to build a new social and political order that can mobilize the people around common interests, with visionary leadership to drive this venture- as only then can we truly begin to resolve some of the socio-economic contradictions afflicting the nation.
Also, there is, in the opinion of this piece, another strategic reason to believe that issues raised by the former president may not be lacking in merit but should be considered accurate and charitable.
Recall that President Buhari, according to reports, had in March 2015, among other things, described Obasanjo as a courageous patriot and statesman who tells the truth to the power when he is convinced that leaders are going wrong. It is my prayer that PMB and other political gladiators will heed this truth that is now coming from that same courageous patriot.
Away from the current open letter, from public affairs analyst’s point of view, I believe and still believe that there is something fundamentally wrong with APC as a political party acronym that throws into confusion any nation they assume the mantle of leadership. It is not only in Nigeria but in Africa as a continent. If you are in doubt of this claim, wait till you cast a glance at this documented account.
In 1985, the All Peoples Congress (APC) took over the mantle of leadership in Sierra Leone (pre-war days) with Joseph Momoh at the helm of affairs; just immediately, the nation came to a halt; the civil servants’ salaries stopped, the road fell to pieces, the schools disintegrated, the National Television stopped in 1987 when the transmitter was sold by the Minister of Information. And in 1989, a radio tower that relayed radio signals outside Free Town fell, ending transmission outside the capital, with weapons pouring over the border as the government disappeared. The economy finally collapsed, and Sierra Leone kissed calamity.
Looking at the above account in relation to what is currently happening in the political geography called Nigeria, it rings apprehension as to whether the country will not be heading for the Sierra Leone experience if voted again in the forthcoming general election.
Essentially, even if an answer is provided to the above, it will not at any significant level erase the common belief by Nigerians that APC lacks the solution to the hydra-headed socioeconomic challenge facing the nation, a feeling that has, in turn, eroded the goodwill the party enjoyed in 2015.
In my view, what is happening is neither Peter Obi endorsement-specific nor open letter induced. The truth is that before this ripple reaction that trailed the latest letter, Nigerians were shell-shocked at ugly developments in the country under the present federal government.
This worry is particularly evident in the current administration’s inability to keep to the promise made in 2015 and 2019 to create a climate of opinion in the country that will look upon corruption in public offices as a threat to society. Instead, it has plundered and plummeted the country into more corruption while leaving the nation’s economy to walk in the valley of the shadow of death. This failure majorly explains what irked Nigerians against the present administration.
While the ultimate result of what the federal government is doing currently is in the womb of the future, and the result may not be palatable if the trend is allowed to complete its gestation without something dramatic done to have it aborted, the truth must be told to the effect that the APC-led federal government has eloquently proved to be pleasant talkers but inept in political will to implement any policy. They have, within this period, promoted corruption and made the entire brouhaha about the corruption fight superficial that only exists in the frame, with the vision neither sharp nor the goal clear.
Most importantly, Nigerians, particularly the youths, like Obasanjo suggested, must, therefore, not allow themselves to be confused but should look towards building a future that is free of suspicion and a nation that will be viewed at the world stage as the zone of peace and prosperity.
In the interim, this piece holds the opinion that Obasanjo’s open letter and endorsement of Peter Obi remains the most dynamic and cohesive action expected of a past leader of his class to earn a higher height of respect and the former president’s TVCP political formula on its part, is the only way forward.
This is a message that Nigerians, particularly the youths, must not allow to go with political winds.
Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He can be reached via je*********@***oo.com/08032725374
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
