Connect with us

Feature/OPED

Nigeria 2019 Governorship Election: Appraising the Verdict

Published

on

By Omoshola Deji

Election in Nigeria is a battle of fists rather than a game of wits. The nation has gotten almost nothing right since independence and still cannot conduct free, fair and credible elections. The insatiable thirst for power has made the leadership recruitment process a battle; turning properties to ashes and beings to corpse. Shame on the leaders and politicians. Shame on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agencies. Shame on Nigeria.

The 2019 general election is the worst in Nigeria’s history. It is the most protracted and onerous, despite being the most expensive. The polls scheduled to wind-up in three weeks has dragged on for six and still counting. Do the arithmetic. The presidential election initially slated for February 16 was postponed to 23 for ‘logistics reasons’ and the governorship election conducted on March 9 is yet to be concluded.

The must-win approach of politicians and the incompetence of the security agencies and INEC rendered the governorship election inconclusive in Kano, Benue, Plateau, Bauchi, Sokoto, Adamawa and Rivers State. The electoral process in Kano, Benue, Plateau and Sokoto has been completed while that of Bauchi, Adamawa and Rivers are still on hold.

Nigeria is the den of negative politicking. The misconducts that rendered the governorship elections inconclusive also made the supplementary elections held on 23 March unfree and unfair and un-credible, especially in Kano State. Desperate candidates unleashed thugs to kill and destroy, while the police looked on. The prevailing either-me-or-nobody politics is endangering our hard-earned democracy and may return Nigeria into the hands of the men in uniform.

The 2019 general election has been an intriguing one. Politicians who were before now seen as undefeatable were defeated. The mighty fell and new ones emerged. Godfathers such as Bukola Saraki (Kwara State) Godswill Akpabio (Akwa-Ibom State), Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto State) and George Akume (Benue State) have been decimated. The death guzzling one’s mate is relaying a message that one’s turn is near. Bola Tinubu should start preparing. 2023 may be his turn.

Over 90 political parties participated in the governorship elections, but Nigerians mainly voted the ruling All Progressives Congress and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In a piece titled “Nigeria 2019 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome”, the writer, hereafter titled Pundit, foretold who’ll triumph in the 29 (out of 36) states where elections were conducted. Governorship election in the remaining 7 states is off-cycle.

Independently foretelling the outcome of governorship elections in a vast and plural nation like Nigerian is a difficult, almost impossible task. It entails a rigorous research into the election winning determinants in each state. Such research is usually sponsored and carried out by a team of leading Political Scientists.

Unaided, the pundit singly foretold the outcomes and did not perform poorly. He made accurate predictions, achieved his target of scoring high, but some predictions failed. The next section of this piece is an analysis of the election controversies, the landmarks, and what the future holds. The pundit’s prediction accuracy and shortcomings in the six geopolitical regions is also appraised.

North West

The region comprises of seven states, including Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Zamfara State. Elections were conducted in all.

Kano State: Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass, even though the Pundit never thought the election would be a keenly contested one. Ganduje garnered 1,033,695 votes to defeat PDP’s Abba Yusuf, who garnered 1,024,713 votes. Ganduje allegedly won via electoral fraud. The supplementary election was a farce and brazen murder of democracy. It was characterized by voter harassment, vote buying, underage voting and violence. Political thugs unleashed mayhem without being resisted by the police. The evidence of electoral infractions is so mammoth that it’ll be difficult for Ganduje to complete his tenure, if the result is challenged at the tribunal.

Observers of the ruling APC’s antecedent and political behaviour knows the party would never allow PDP take control of Kano. The state has the highest number of registered voters and needs to be kept in the bag for 2023. APC also went all out to retain Kano in order to bury arguments that the presidential election was rigged in the state for President Muhammadu Buhari.

Katsina State: Aminu Masari of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He scored 1,178,868 votes to defeat PDP’s Yakubu Lado who scored 488,705 votes.

Kaduna State: Nasir El-Rufai of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He garnered 1,044,710 votes to defeat PDP’s Isah Asiru who garnered 814,168 votes. Balancing religion equation is an unconstitutional rule politicians obey, except El-Rufai. He took the risk of running with a fellow Muslim and won. That it works for him doesn’t mean it’ll work for others. Nigeria’s prevailing ethno-religious sensitivity will deny others who copy him a win.

Kebbi State: Abubakar Bagudu of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated PDP’s Isa Galaudu with 571,092 votes.

Sokoto State: the pundit wrongly predicted a win for APC’s Ahmad Aliyu. He was ticked to win by a small margin, but that happened the other way round. Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP defeated him with 341 votes.

Jigawa State: Mohammad Badaru of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He garnered 810,933 votes to defeat PDP’s Aminu Ibrahim who polled 288,356 votes.

Zamfara State: the Pundit wrongly predicted a narrow win for PDP’s Bello Mutawalle. His selection of Mutawalle was based on the lingering intra-party crisis in Zamfara APC before the election. Mukhtar Shehu of the APC defeated PDP’s Mutawalle with 345,089 votes.

Overall, the pundit made 4 right and 2 wrong predictions in the North West.

South South

The six states in the region are Edo, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Cross River and Akwa Ibom State. Edo and Bayelsa State governorship election are off-cycle.

Delta State: Ifeanyi Okowa of the PDP’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated APC’s Great Ogboru with 710,236 votes.

Rivers State: PDP’s Nyesom Wike was ticked to win, but the electoral process was suspended due to military interference and human rights abuses. The court restrained APC from appearing on the ballot. Wike’s main opponent, Biokpomabo Awara of the AAC rose to prominence after securing the backing of the APC bigwigs. The Pundit maintains that Wike will defeat Awara.

Cross River State: Ben Ayade’s win was foretold and it came to pass. The PDP candidate defeated APC’s John Owan-Enoh with 250,323 votes.

Akwa Ibom State: PDP’s Udom Emmanuel’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He scored 520,163 votes to defeat APC’s Nsima Nkere who scored 172,244 votes. APC overrated ex-Governor Godswill Akpabio’s political capacity when he joined the party. His senatorial reelection loss and inability to deliver Akwa Ibom for the party has sent him into political oblivion, but he is yet to realize that. The party will relegate him after those elected are sworn-in on May 29.

Overall, out of the four states were election held, the Pundit made 3 right predictions, while the result of Rivers State is being awaited.

North East

The region comprises of six states including Adamawa, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe State. Elections were conducted in all.

Adamawa State: Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP’s win was foretold, although the election remains inconclusive. The electoral process was suspended based on court order. The already declared results indicate that PDP’s Ahmadu Fintiri has 367,611 votes, while Governor Jibrilla Bindo of the APC has 334,995 votes. With a winning margin of 32,616 votes and the low number of voters in areas where the supplementary election will hold, PDP’s Fintiri will most likely defeat APC’s Bindo as initially predicted.

Yobe State: Mai Mala Buni of the APC was predicted to win by a landslide and it came to pass. He polled 444,013 votes to defeat PDP’s Umar Damagun who polled 95,803 votes.

Borno State: Babagana Zullum of APC’s wide margin win was foretold and it came to pass. He polled a staggering 1,175,445 votes to defeat PDP’s Mohammed Imam who garnered a paltry 66,117 votes. The large number of votes recorded in Borno state is surprising. The state has been ravaged by Boko Haram insurgents and many of the voting population are displaced. How elections across the state were so organized that many people voted, but residents of a peaceful state like Kano were attacked and prevented from voting during the supplementary poll is bewildering. APC’s interest is the switch that determines the operational effectiveness of the security agencies. They protect the votes in APC strongholds and let thugs destroy the ballot in PDP’s own.

Bauchi State: election is inconclusive. The court restrained INEC from proceeding with the collation of results, but the order has been vacated. Governor Mohammed Abubakar of the APC’s win was foretold, but that may not happen. PDP’s Bala Mohammed is leading in the main and supplementary election results. PDP has a total of 469,512 votes, while APC has 465,456 votes. Bauchi is amiss for the pundit as victory is most certain for PDP’s Mohammed.

Taraba State: Darius Ishaku’s (PDP) win was foretold and it came to pass. He garnered 520,433 votes to defeat APC’s Sani Danladi who scored 362,735 votes.

Gombe State: Inuwa Yahaya’s (APC) win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated PDP’s Usman Nafada with 141,311 votes.

Overall, out of the six states were election held, the Pundit made 4 right predictions, while the results of Adamawa and Bauchi State is being awaited.

South East

The five states in the region are Anambra, Abia, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo state. Anambra’s governorship election is off-cycle.

Abia State: Okezie Ikpeazu’s win was foretold and it came to pass. The PDP candidate defeated APC’s Uche Ogah with 161,553 votes.

Enugu State: Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi’s win was foretold and it came to pass. The PDP candidate garnered 449,935 votes to defeat APC’s Ayogu Eze, who garnered 10,423 votes.

Ebonyi State: David Umahi win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated APC’s Sonni Ogbuoji with 257,146 votes.

Imo State: is a big plus for the Pundit. Many doubted him, but PDP’s Emeka Ihedioha won as foretold. He scored 273,404 votes to defeat Uche Nwosu of AA who scored 190,364 votes. Ifeanyi Ararume of APGA came third, while APC’s Hope Uzodinma came fourth. The former scored 114,676 votes, while the latter scored 96,458 votes.

Overall, PDP’s win was foretold in all the four states where elections held and it came to pass.

North Central

The region, also called the Middle Belt, comprises of six states, including Kogi, Benue, Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa and Plateau State. The governorship election in Kogi State is off-cycle.

Benue State: Samuel Ortom of the PDP’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated APC’s Emmanuel Jime with 89,318 votes.

Kwara State: AbdulRahman Abdulrasaq of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated PDP’s Rasak Atunwa with 216,236 votes.

Niger State: Abubakar Bello of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He garnered 526,351 votes to defeat PDP’s Umar Nasko who garnered 298,056 votes.

Nassarawa State: Abdullahi Sule of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He defeated PDP’s David Ombugadu with 142,970 votes.

Plateau State: the Pundit wrongly predicted a win for PDP’s Jeremiah Useni, but APC’s Simon Lalung defeated him with a meagre 2,672 votes.

Overall, out of the five states were election held, the Pundit made 4 right predictions and 1 wrong.

South West

The governorship election was conducted in only three (Oyo, Ogun, Lagos) out of the six states in the region. Ondo, Osun and Ekiti State governorship elections are off-cycle.

Oyo State: the Pundit wrongly predicted a narrow win for APC’s Bayo Adelabu. Seyi Makinde of the PDP however defeated him with 157,639 votes.

Ogun State: the pundit predicted a win for APM’s Adekunle Akinlade, but he lost. APC’s Dapo Abiodun defeated him with 19,517 votes. The pundit’s prediction was wrong in Oyo and Ogun state because of the intense last minute political horse-trading and alignments that occurred before the election. This made the pundit declare during prediction that “a lot of last minute endorsement and permutation is going on in the state and it’s quite different to state where the pendulum would swing”.

Lagos State: Babajide Sanwoolu of the APC’s win was foretold and it came to pass. He garnered 739,445 votes to defeat PDP’s Jimi Agbaje who garnered 206,141 votes.

Overall, the Pundit made 1 right and 2 wrong predictions in the South West region.

Accuracy Rate

Out of the 29 states where governorship elections were conducted, a winner is yet to be declared in Rivers, Bauchi and Adamawa State. Out of the 26 states where winners have been declared, the pundit made:

4 right and 2 wrong predictions in the North West;

3 right (out of 4) predictions in the South South, (Rivers is pending);

4 right (out of 6) predictions in the North East (Bauchi and Adamawa are pending);

4 right predictions in the South East, no wrong;

4 right and 1 wrong prediction in the North Central;

1 right and 2 wrong predictions in the South West.

In total, the pundit made 20 right predictions and got it wrong in 6.

In the election outcome prediction piece, the Pundit stated that he hopes to get it right in over 20 states and he succeeded as his prediction is about to come to pass in two out of the three pending states. Even though it’s difficult and looks impossible, the Pundit aims to foretell the right outcome in all the states in 2023.

For the Records

Across the country, Babagana Zullum, the APC candidate in Borno State won the 2019 governorship election with the highest margin of 1,109,230 votes. PDP’s Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State won with the lowest margin of 341 votes. Mohammed Imam, the PDP governorship candidate in Borno State scored the lowest votes: 66,117. Aminu Masari, the APC governorship candidate in Katsina State (President Buahri’s home state) scored an overall highest vote of 1,178,868. APC did not win any state in the South East but PDP won in all the six regions of the country. Power changed hands in four states: Oyo and Imo that are currently being ruled by the APC were won by the PDP, while Gombe and Kwara State being ruled by the PDP were won by the APC.

End Note

The 2019 general election brought joy to the winners and pain to those who lose, especially those who spent their life savings or borrowed money to campaign. It is difficult for credible candidates to win election in our violence prone and money based political system.

The monetization of politics is denying the best an opportunity to lead the rest. If this is not contained, Nigeria will in a few years be governed by fraudsters and drug barons. They’re the only ones who can afford to fund our expensive campaigns and politicking.

None or only one in a billion men of honest earnings can. In no distant time, the intellectuals would be relegated or at best be political godsons to those who have acquired enormous wealth through dishonest means. Vice President Yemi Osibajo is a case in point.

Declaring elections inconclusive is a recipe for electoral fraud as the supplementary polls are often marred with voter harassment and violence. Politics should be made less rewarding to discourage politicians from making elections a do or die affair. President Buhari needs to liaise with the national assembly to re-pass the amended electoral law and assent it. As long as electoral offenders remain unpunished, people will not desist from perpetrating crime and fraud during elections. A strict penalty such as jail terms with no option of fine should be enacted.

Leadership is service. Politicians offering money for votes are thieves seeking the power to steal, not serve. Politics is the most profitable investment in Nigeria and politicians don’t play to lose. We must stop rewarding failure and incompetence with our votes, if we wish to live the Nigeria of our dreams. 2019 is gone and we have no choice than to endure the pains — or enjoy the gains — of our political choice till 2023. May God help us!

Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Feature/OPED

Ledig at One: The Year We Turned Stablecoins Into Real Liquidity for the Real World

Published

on

Ledig

Ever tried sending a large amount of money into or out of certain markets and felt your stomach twist a bit? That was the feeling many companies carried long before Ledig existed. Delays. Guesswork. Phone calls that sounded unsure. People waiting on people, and no reliable derivatives hedging protocol to shield them from currency swings. It was messy.

That frustration is what pushed us to open Ledig to the world a year ago. We wanted a system built for big transfers. Not a few hundred dollars. Serious amounts. A hundred thousand. A million. Even more. And we wanted it to move in seconds, not a strange timeline that no one could explain.

So, we built a setup that lets companies bring in stablecoins and get local currency out quickly. We also kept the opposite direction just as clean. Local currency in, stablecoins out. Both ways needed to feel the same because business doesn’t move in only one direction. Some clients even switch between the two during the same week.

In the early days, people sent smaller amounts to test us. Fair enough. But once they saw a large payment settle almost instantly, confidence spread. This is how we crossed our first $100M. Most of that came from global companies working across Africa and other emerging markets. These firms care about stability, not buzzwords. They just want their money to land where it should.

A lot of the magic sits behind the scenes. Wallets. Local settlement tools. A solid FX engine that adjusts as needed. None of this appears on the surface. All a user sees is a simple dashboard or a set of API calls that get the job done. They don’t even need to think about crypto. The tech exists under the hood, doing the heavy lifting quietly.

But fast movement alone wasn’t enough.

Ledig derivatives hedging protocol

There was another problem staring companies in the face. Currency swings. And they hurt. Imagine finishing a project today and waiting ninety days to get paid in a currency that drops often. By the time the company receives the money, the value has fallen so much that the profit is almost gone. This is a real issue, and many firms have lived through that shock.

This is where our derivatives hedging protocol stepped in. It lets companies lock in their value early so they don’t get caught off guard later. The product ran off-chain at first and still passed $55M in activity. Now we’re taking the derivatives hedging protocol fully on-chain. We picked Base for this next step because it fits the type of stablecoins our settlement system relies on. It also gives companies a clean, transparent environment to execute derivatives hedging protocol strategies built for actual commercial needs rather than trading games.

It took time to get here. Our team is small, which surprised a lot of people, but that worked in our favour. We avoided noise. We focused on building pieces that work. Think of it like a set of tools. One tool converts stable to fiat. Another handles fiat to stable. Another manages FX. Another supports treasury. Another delivers hedging to protect value. Each tool works alone, but when a company puts them together, they get a full workbench that covers money movement and risk in one place.

We rarely talk about revenue publicly, but the business is in a good place. The real sign of health is that companies keep trusting us with large transactions. Not one-off tests. Proper flows. The kind that supports payrolls, suppliers, expansion, and daily operations. In markets where delays can break everything, this matters.

Looking ahead, our focus for 2026 is simple. Bring the derivatives hedging protocol on-chain at scale. Grow our liquidity pipeline so larger payments stay just as smooth as they are today. Strengthen our licensing and regulatory setup, so bigger institutions can work with us without extra steps. And continue tightening the entire system so companies entering emerging markets can do it with far less stress.

Ledig is one year old. The mission is still the same. Move large amounts of money fast. Protect companies from painful currency swings using a battle-tested derivatives hedging protocol. Build tools they can rely on without worrying about how the background tech works.

This is just the beginning.

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

If You Understand Nigeria, You Fit Craze

Published

on

confusion nigeria

By Prince Charles Dickson PhD

There is a popular Nigerian lingo cum proverb that has graduated from street humour to philosophical thesis: “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze.” It sounds funny. It is funny. But like most Nigerian jokes, it is also dangerously accurate.

Catherine’s story from Kubwa Road is the kind of thing that does not need embellishment. Nigeria already embellishes itself. Picture this: a pedestrian bridge built for pedestrians. A bridge whose sole job description in life is to allow human beings cross a deadly highway without dying. And yet, under this very bridge, pedestrians are crossing the road. Not illegally on their own this time, but with the active assistance of a uniformed Road Safety officer who stops traffic so that people can jaywalk under a bridge built to stop jaywalking.

At that point, sanity resigns.

You expect the officer to enforce the law: “Use the bridge.” Instead, he enforces survival: “Let nobody die today.” And therein lies the Nigerian paradox. The officer is not wicked. In fact, he is humane. He chooses immediate life over abstract order. But his humanity quietly murders the system. His kindness baptises lawlessness. His good intention tells the pedestrian: you are right; the bridge is optional.

Nigeria is full of such tragic kindness.

We build systems and then emotionally sabotage them. We complain about lack of infrastructure, but when infrastructure shows up, we treat it like an optional suggestion. Pedestrian bridges become decorative monuments. Traffic lights become Christmas decorations. Zebra crossings become modern art—beautiful, symbolic, and useless.

Ask the pedestrians why they won’t use the bridge and you’ll hear a sermon:

“It’s too stressful to climb.”

“It’s far from my bus stop.”

“My knee dey pain me.”

“I no get time.”

“Thieves dey up there.”

All valid explanations. None a justification. Because the same person that cannot climb a bridge will sprint across ten lanes of oncoming traffic with Olympic-level agility. Suddenly, arthritis respects urgency.

But Nigeria does not punish inconsistency; it rewards it.

So, the Road Safety officer becomes a moral hostage. Arrest the pedestrians and risk chaos, insults, possible mob action, and a viral video titled “FRSC wickedness.” Or stop cars, save lives, and quietly train people that rules are flexible when enough people ignore them.

Nigeria often chooses the short-term good that destroys the long-term future.

And that is why understanding Nigeria is a psychiatric risk.

This paradox does not stop at Kubwa Road. It is a national operating system.

We live in a country where a polite policeman shocks you. A truthful politician is treated like folklore—“what-God-cannot-do-does-exist.” A nurse or doctor going one year without strike becomes breaking news. Bandits negotiate peace deals with rifles slung over their shoulders, attend dialogue meetings fully armed, and sometimes do TikTok videos of ransoms like content creators.

Criminals have better PR than institutions.

In Nigeria, you bribe to get WAEC “special centre,” bribe to gain university admission, bribe to choose your state of origin for NYSC, and bribe to secure a job. Merit is shy. Connection is confident. Talent waits outside while mediocrity walks in through the back door shaking hands.

You even bribe to eat food at social events. Not metaphorically. Literally. You must “know somebody” to access rice and small chops at a wedding you were invited to. At burial grounds, you need connections to bury your dead with dignity. Even grief has gatekeepers.

We have normalised the absurd so thoroughly that questioning it feels rude.

And yet, the same Nigerians will shout political slogans with full lungs—“Tinubu! Tinubu!!”—without knowing the name of their councillor, councillor’s office, or councillor’s phone number. National politics is theatre; local governance is invisible. We debate presidency like Premier League fans but cannot locate the people controlling our drainage, primary schools, markets, and roads.

We scream about “bad leadership” in Abuja while ignoring the rot at the ward level where leadership is close enough to knock on your door.

Nigeria is a place where laws exist, but enforcement negotiates moods. Where rules are firm until they meet familiarity. Where morality is elastic and context-dependent. Where being honest is admirable but being foolish is unforgivable.

We admire sharpness more than integrity. We celebrate “sense” even when sense means cheating the system. If you obey the rules and suffer, you are naïve. If you break them and succeed, you are smart.

So, the Road Safety officer on Kubwa Road is not an anomaly. He is Nigeria distilled.

Nigeria teaches you to survive first and reform later—except later never comes.

We choose convenience over consistency. Emotion over institution. Today over tomorrow. Life over law, until life itself becomes cheap because law has been weakened.

This is how bridges become irrelevant. This is how systems decay. This is how exceptions swallow rules.

And then we wonder why nothing works.

The painful truth is this: Nigeria is not confusing because it lacks logic. It is confusing because it has too many competing logics. Survival logic. Moral logic. Emotional logic. Opportunistic logic. Religious logic. Tribal logic. Political logic. None fully dominant. All constantly clashing.

So, when someone says, “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze,” what they really mean is this: Nigeria is not designed to be understood; it is designed to be endured.

To truly understand Nigeria is to accept contradictions without resolution. To watch bridges built and ignored. Laws written and suspended. Criminals empowered and victims lectured. To see good people make bad choices for good reasons that produce bad outcomes.

And maybe the real madness is not understanding Nigeria—but understanding it and still hoping it will magically fix itself without deliberate, painful, collective change.

Until then, pedestrians will continue crossing under bridges, officers will keep stopping traffic to save lives, systems will keep eroding gently, and we will keep laughing at our own tragedy—because sometimes, laughter is the only therapy left.

Nigeria no be joke.

But if you no laugh, you go cry—May Nigeria win.

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

Post-Farouk Era: Will Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum?

Published

on

dangote farouk ahmed

By Abba Dukawa

“For the marketers, I hope they lose even more. I’m not printing money; I’m also losing money. They want imports to continue, but I don’t think that is right. So I must have a strategy to survive because $20 billion of investment is too big to fail. We are in a situation where we will continue to play cat and mouse, and eventually, someone will give up—either we give up, or they will.” —Aliko Dangote

This statement reflects that while Dangote is incurring losses, he remains committed to his investment, determined to outlast competitors reliant on imports. He believes that persistence and strategy will eventually force them to concede before he does.

Aliko Dangote has faced unprecedented resistance in the petroleum sector, unlike in any of his other business ventures. His first attempt came on May 17, 2007, when the Obasanjo administration sold 51% of Port Harcourt Refinery to Bluestar Oil—a consortium including Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil, and Transcorp—for $561 million. NNPC staff strongly opposed the sale. The refinery was later reclaimed under President Yar’adua, a setback that provided Dangote a tough but invaluable lesson. Undeterred, he went on to build Africa’s largest refinery.

As a private investor, Dangote has delivered much-needed infrastructure to Nigeria’s oil-and-gas sector. Yet, his refinery faces regulatory hurdles from agency’s meant to promote efficiency and growth. Despite this monumental private investment in the nation’s downstream sector, powerful domestic and foreign oil interests may have influenced Farouk Ahmad, former NMDPRA Managing Director, to hinder the refinery’s operations.

The dispute dates back to July 2024, when the NMDPRA claimed that locally refined petroleum products including those from Dangote’s refinery were inferior to imported fuel.  Although the confrontation appeared to subside, the underlying rift persisted. Aliko Dangote is not one to speak often, but the pressure he is facing has compelled him to break his silence. He has begun to speak out about what he sees as a deliberate targeting of his investments, as his petroleum-refining venture continues to face repeated regulatory and institutional challenges.

The latest impasse began when Dangote accused the NMDPRA of issuing excessive import licenses for petroleum products, undermining local refining capacity and threatening national energy security. He alleged that the regulator allowed the importation of cheap fuel, including from Russia, which could cripple domestic refineries such as his 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day Lagos plant.

 The conflict intensified after Dangote publicly accused Farouk Ahmad, former head of NMDPRA, of living large on a civil servant’s salary. Dangote claimed Ahmad’s lifestyle was way too lavish, pointing out that four of his kids were in pricey Swiss schools. He took his grievance to the ICPC, alleging misconduct and abuse of office.

It’s striking how Nigerian office holders at every level have mastered the art of impunity. Even though Ahmad dismissed the accusations but the standoff prompting Ahmad’s resignation. But the bitter irony these “public servants” tasked with protecting citizens’ interests often face zero consequences for violating policies meant to safeguard the Nation and public interest.

The clash of titans lays bare deeper flaws in Nigeria’s petroleum governance. It shows how institutional weaknesses turn regulatory disputes into personal power plays. In a system with robust norms, such conflicts would be settled via clear rules, independent oversight, and transparent processes not media wars and public accusations.

Even before completion, the refinery’s operating license was denied. Farouk Ahmad claimed Dangote’s petrol was subpar, ordering tests that appeared aimed at public embarrassment. Dangote countered with independent public testing of his diesel, challenging the regulator’s claims.

He also invited Ahmad to verify the tests on-site, but the offer was declined. Moreover, NNPC initially refused to supply crude oil, forcing Dangote to source it from the United States a practice that continues.

President Tinubu later directed the NNPC to resume crude supplies and accept payment in naira, reportedly displeasing the state oil company. In addition to presidential directives, Farouk claimed Dangote was producing petrol beyond the approved quantity and insisted that crude oil be purchased exclusively in U.S. dollars a condition Dangote accepted.

From the public’s point of view, the Refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria, with the potential to end fuel imports and boost the economy. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it produces around 104 million liters of petroleum products daily, meeting 90% of Nigeria’s domestic demand and allowing exports to other West African countries.

The Dangote Refinery is poised to earn foreign exchange, stabilize fuel prices, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security. However, the ongoing dispute surrounding the refinery underscores the challenges of aligning national interests with regulatory and institutional frameworks.

The Dangote Refinery’s growing dominance has sparked concerns among stakeholders like NUPENG and PENGASSAN, who fear it could lead to a private monopoly, stifling competition and harming smaller players. This concern stems from the refinery’s rejection of the traditional ₦5 million-per-truck levy on petroleum shipments.

However, Dangote has taken steps to address these concerns, reducing the minimum purchase requirement from 2 million liters to 250,000 liters, opening the market to smaller operators and strengthening distribution networks. The refinery has also purchased 2,000 CNG trucks to maintain operations, emphasizing its commitment to making energy affordable and accessible

Many are watching closely to see if Dangote’s actions are driven by a desire for transparency and fairness in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector or private business interests. Did Dangote genuinely want to fight the corruption going on in the sector?, Will Dangote refinery operate for the common good or seek market dominance? Did Farouk Ahmad act in the public interest or obstruct the refinery for hidden oil interests? Will the Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum in the Post-Farouk Era?The dispute between Dangote and Farouk Ahmad remains shrouded in mystery, with the ICPC investigation likely to uncover the truth

To many, the government faces a delicate balancing act: protecting local refiners while ensuring fair competition. While some argue that Dangote’s success shouldn’t come at the expense of smaller players, others see it episodes like this reveal persistent contradictions: powerful interests, fragile institutions, and blurred lines between regulation and politics.The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) promised a new era of clarity, efficiency, and accountability, but its implementation has been slow. The PIA’s success hinges on addressing these challenges.

What benefits one party can indeed threaten another. Despite entering the sector with good intentions, Dangote has faced relentless pushback, all eyes are on whether the refinery can sustain its momentum. Analysts and commentators are sharing their perspectives based on available data from relevant institutions. If anyone spreads false information, the truth will eventually come out

Dukawa is a journalist, public‑affairs analyst, and political commentator. He can be reached at [email protected]

Continue Reading

Trending