Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
Economy
Nigeria Now Compelling Investment Destination for Value Creation—Tinubu
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigerians have been urged to invest more locally because the country has now become a compelling investment destination, where value is being created and discovered.
This is the view of President Bola Tinubu, who expressed confidence that 2026 would deliver even stronger returns as the impact of his administration’s economic reforms continues to materialise.
He was reacting to the historic N100 trillion market capitalisation mark of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited achieved on Monday, describing the feat as a powerful signal of renewed investor confidence and economic rejuvenation.
In a statement, the President said, “With Nigerian Exchange crossing the historic N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, the country is witnessing the birth of a new economic reality and rejuvenation,” noting that the All-Share Index (ASI) closed 2025 with a 51.19 epr cent return, up from 37.65 per cent in 2024, ranking among the strongest performances globally and outperforming major indices including the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and several emerging-market peers.
“Nigeria is no longer a frontier market to be overlooked, it is now a compelling investment destination where value is being created and discovered,” he declared.
Mr Tinubu emphasised that robust stock market performance reflects broader economic health and rising investor confidence, highlighting several factors behind the market’s strong performance: impressive results across listed companies, a growing pipeline of new listings spanning energy, technology, telecommunications, and infrastructure, as well as broader macroeconomic improvements including easing inflation, a stabilising naira, rising foreign reserves, and expanding exports.
He reiterated his administration’s commitment to building an inclusive, transparent, and high-growth economy, stressing that the N100 trillion milestone sends a powerful message to the global investment community.
“Nation-building is a process, not a destination. The N100 trillion market capitalisation is a signal to the world that the Nigerian economy is robust, productive, and open for business,” Mr Tinubn affirmed.
In his remarks, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, credited President Tinubu’s leadership for driving the market to historic heights.
“The N100 trillion milestone is a direct result of the administration’s decisive reforms and unwavering commitment to transparency and fiscal discipline.
“These policies have renewed investor trust and solidified the credibility of Nigeria’s capital market,” Mr Agama stated, reaffirming the agency’s alignment with the President’s economic vision, pledging to strengthen oversight, protect investors, and uphold governance standards to ensure sustained growth and resilience.
On his part, the chief executive of NGX Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, commended President Tinubu for providing the policy clarity and reform momentum that have bolstered investor confidence.
“This milestone underscores the success of ongoing reforms and the exchange’s commitment to market depth, transparency, and inclusive growth. The capital market has responded positively to improved macroeconomic coordination and clear reform direction, creating an enabling environment for sustainable investment. It validates our focus on market development, innovation, and creating an environment where both local and global investors can deploy capital with confidence,” Mr Popoola noted.
He added that NGX Group would continue collaborating with regulators and stakeholders to attract quality listings, deepen liquidity, and expand retail participation, reinforcing our position as a catalyst for sustainable economic growth.
Economy
NASD Securities Exchange Appreciates 0.21%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange appreciated for the fourth straight session on Thursday, January 8, chalking up 0.21 per cent.
This improved the market capitalisation of the bourse by N4.69 billion to N2.190 trillion from the N2.185 trillion it ended in the preceding session, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) added 7.83 points to close at 3,660.87 points compared with Wednesday’s 3,653.04 points.
Business Post observed that there were movements around five securities during the trading day, with three pointing north and two point south.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.55 to close at N62.47 per share versus Wednesday’s price of N59.92 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by 48 Kobo to N42.62 per unit from N42.14 per unit, and IPWA Plc improved by 10 Kobo to N1.12 per share from the N1.02 per share it ended at midweek.
On the flip side, Afriland Properties Plc lost N1.81 to end at N16.30 per unit versus the previous day’s value of N18.11 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed by 6 Kobo to quote at N6.82 per share versus N6.88 per share.
During the session, the volume of transactions was down by 74.0 per cent to 486,499 units from 1.9 million units, the value of trades slumped by 70.9 per cent to N10.5 million from N36.3 million, and the number of deals went down by 46.7 per cent to 24 deals from 45 deals.
At the close of business, CSCS Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 million units sold for N42.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 2.9 million units valued at N20.3 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 217,757 units worth N13.1 million.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was Geo-Fluids Plc with 2.9 million units valued at N20.3 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc followed with 2.9 million units traded for N1.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 1.1 million units worth N42.7 million.
Economy
Naira Suffers First Loss in 2026 at Official Market, Trades N1,419/$1
By Adedapo Adesanya
After recent gains, the Naira recorded its first loss against the US Dollar in 2026 on Thursday, January 8, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM).
Yesterday, at the official market, the Nigerian currency tumbled against the greenback by N1.46 or 0.11 per cent to sell for N1,419.72/$1, in contrast to Wednesday’s closing price of N1,418.26/$1.
However, the local currency further appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment by N5.28 to close at N1,908.38/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,913.66/£1, but lost 14 Kobo against the Euro to finish at N1,657.66/€1 compared with the midweek session’s closing price of N1,657.52/€1.
In the same vein, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart in the parallel market by N15 during the session to quote at N1,485/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,470/$1 and declined by N3 at the GTBank forex desk to trade at N1,428/$1 versus the previous value of N1,425/$1.
The domestic currency has remained relatively stable in the spot market in tandem with projections by analysts, including PwC, which expects the Naira to remain broadly stable through 2026, underpinned by ongoing reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and improved portfolio inflows
However, policymakers have been told to wary of weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis, and forced currency devaluation, which could return prices to weaker levels.
According to CardinalStone, pre-election worries, an unanticipated slump in exports, especially non-oil, and the ongoing global trend of tightening border controls may reduce Nigerian exports, and have a ripple effect on the Naira’s strength.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was bullish as traders await the US Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The market is pricing in to see if the US Supreme Court explicitly upholds Trump’s use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. Depending on the outcome, this could potentially push long-term US yields higher and tighten global liquidity, a mix that has historically pressured crypto, which is sensitive to quick changes in both.
Solana (SOL) appreciated by 4.2 per cent to $140.49, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 1.8 per cent to sell for $895.46, Cardano (ADA) increased by 1.8 per cent to $0.3989, and Ripple (XRP) soared by 1.6 per cent to $2.14.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 1.3 per cent each to $91,017.24 and $81.73 apiece, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 0.4 per cent to $3,119.22, and Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 0.2 per cent to $0.1429, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) finished flat at $1.00 each.
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