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Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale

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2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse Yemi Kale

By Adedapo Adesanya

Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.

Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.

Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.

According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.

It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.

The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.

It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.

In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.

He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports

A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.

According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.

In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence

While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.

The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.

He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria Launches EMERGE to Unlock $750bn Mineral Wealth

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map of nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has launched the Early-Stage Mineral Exploration and Research Grant Endowment Program (EMERGE), a new initiative aimed at accelerating early-stage mineral exploration, strengthening geological research and advancing local value addition.

The programme is part of moves to unlock Nigeria’s $750 billion worth of untapped mineral deposits under broader efforts to diversify its economy beyond oil.

Nigeria has outlined plans to expand mineral exploration and production, identifying 44 strategic mineral deposits and is seeking developers with the requisite capital and technological expertise to invest.

The government has also sought to increase mining’s contribution to GDP to 10 per cent in 2026. However, unlocking these opportunities will require stronger geological data, greater technical capacity and increased investment in early-stage exploration.

The introduction of the EMERGE initiative aims to address these gaps. The programme is centred around three areas of focus: science-backed exploration, critical minerals development and research and development.

The exploration stream targets early-stage geological insights to generate reliable mineral data, the critical minerals stream targets minerals required for the energy transition, while the research and development stream integrates science and innovation across the value chain.

Driven by the Solid Minerals Development Fund, the programme is designed to position Nigeria as a major player in the global minerals value chain. It also builds on a rising wave of international partnerships aimed at modernising Nigeria’s exploration infrastructure through digitisation and enhanced capacity building.

Nigeria and Turkey formalised a partnership agreement in May 2026, aimed at strengthening cooperation in mining technology, exploration and investment.

Nigeria has also entered geological mapping and exploration cooperation agreements with South Sudan and South Africa, aimed at advancing geological and technical expertise while facilitating greater investment flows across the exploration sector.

Recent mineral ambitions are being backed by global finance. In March 2026, Nigeria secured $1.3 billion from the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) to fund its mineral exploration programs as well as the construction of an alumina refinery, advancing its national mineral production and domestic beneficiation strategy.

Also, late last year, the federal government allocated over $600 million for geoscientific exploration and nationwide mapping, highlighting Nigeria’s commitment to de-risk the sector through access to modern geological data and accelerated exploration activities.

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Economy

Ellah Lakes Gets Equipment for Palm Kernel Oil Mill, Plans Cold Chain Facility for Piggery

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ellah lakes

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

To strengthen its integrated agribusiness platform, Ellah Lakes Plc has acquired the first set of expellers and presses for its Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) mill.

The company also plans to proceed with the installation of its abattoir and cold chain facility to support its longer-term strategy of scaling its piggery operations, improving processing capacity and enhancing market access for livestock products.

At the moment, Ellah Lakes has surpassed 1,000 pigs on its farm, reflecting continued progress in the scaling of its livestock operations, positioning the organisation as one of the leading piggery operators in Edo State and reinforcing livestock as an important vertical within its integrated agribusiness model, which supports revenue diversification and near-to-medium-term cash flow generation as the firm’s plantation assets continue to mature.

In a statement, the leading indigenous agribusiness organisation disclosed that the installation of the expellers and presses for its PKO mill should be completed by the end of Q3 2026, ahead of the commencement of the production of Palm Kernel Oil and Palm Kernel Cake (PKC).

It was noted that the addition of PKO and PKC production will enable Ellah Lakes to capture further value from its oil palm operations, expand its product base and deepen its participation across the agricultural value chain.

“These milestones reflect the continued execution of our strategy to build Ellah Lakes into a more integrated and commercially resilient agribusiness platform.

“The acquisition of equipment for our PKO Mill advances our move into higher-value processing, while the growth of our piggery operations strengthens an important cash-generating vertical within our business model,” the chief executive of Ellah Lakes, Mr Chuka Mordi, stated.

“As our plantation assets continue to mature, we are focused on expanding operating verticals that broaden our revenue base, improve value capture and support more consistent cash flow.

“Our priority is to complete key installations, scale production efficiently and build the infrastructure required to support sustainable long-term growth,” Mr Mordi added.

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Economy

Shrinking Access to Credit Worries MAN as Bank Lending Drops N1.92trn

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Local Meter Manufacturers

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Manufacturers of Nigeria (MAN) has warned that manufacturers are facing a disparity in access to structured credit, which is affecting the sector’s productivity.

In his analysis, the Director General of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, explained that commercial bank credit to manufacturers declined by N1.92 trillion between December 2024 and December 2025 to N6.61 trillion from N8.53 trillion.

The figure, he said, represents a year-on-year contraction of 22.5 per cent, placing manufacturing among the sectors with the highest decline in credit access.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir said the development was troubling at a time when Nigeria requires increased investment in productive sectors to strengthen local production, reduce import dependence and create employment opportunities.

“Declining access to affordable finance is threatening factory expansion, employment and economic diversification, and government and regulators need to urgently reform industrial financing,” he said.

He noted that while manufacturing credit suffered a major decline, other sectors such as oil and gas and financial services continued to attract higher levels of bank financing, raising concerns about the allocation of capital towards productive activities.

The MAN DG blamed the worsening situation on a combination of high borrowing costs, restrictive monetary conditions, commercial banks’ risk-averse lending approach and delays in implementing targeted industrial support programmes.

He highlighted high interest rates as one of the biggest obstacles confronting businesses, noting that borrowing costs remain too expensive for long-term investments in factories, machinery upgrades and production expansion.

MAN stated that with lending rates reportedly above 30 per cent in many cases, manufacturers are finding it increasingly difficult to finance operations, maintain competitiveness and expand capacity.

The association also identified the high Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) maintained by the Central Bank of Nigeria as another factor limiting the amount of funds available for lending to businesses.

According to MAN, commercial banks have become more cautious in extending credit because they bear the risks associated with intervention funds, leaving manufacturers unable to meet collateral and equity requirements demanded by lenders.

The association also cautioned that weakening domestic production could deepen inflationary pressures by increasing dependence on imported goods and putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

To reverse the trend, the MAN boss called for urgent measures, including the introduction of government-backed credit guarantees for small and medium-scale manufacturers.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir also urged the government to ensure the immediate implementation of the Manufacturing Stabilisation Fund and create a more direct financing structure capable of delivering single-digit interest loans to genuine manufacturers.

He said Nigeria’s industrial ambitions could only be achieved when manufacturers have access to affordable and sustainable financing.

The MAN boss warned that without a functional credit system supporting production, Nigeria’s goal of becoming a competitive manufacturing economy would remain difficult to achieve.

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