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Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale

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2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse Yemi Kale

By Adedapo Adesanya

Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.

Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.

Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.

According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.

It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.

The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.

It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.

In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.

He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports

A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.

According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.

In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence

While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.

The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.

He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Volume-led Revenue Growth, Others Raise Lafarge Africa’s Q1’26 PAT by 101%

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lafarge africa shareholders

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The profit after tax (PAT) of Lafarge Africa Plc for the first quarter of 2026 more than doubled to N97.95 billion from N48.64 billion in the same period of last year.

This was largely driven by volume-led revenue growth, sustained cost discipline, and prudent financial management.

Analysis of the results filed with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the leading provider of innovative and sustainable building solutions noted that it improved its net sales by 35 per cent year-on-year to N334.88 billion from N248.35 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, supported by improved volumes, enhanced plant stability, and distribution efficiency, while operating profit went up by 97 per cent to N141 billion.

According to the chief executive of Lafarge Africa, Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, these numbers “reflect continued progress in executing our strategic priorities” and also “underscore our continued focus on delivering sustainable value to our shareholders.”

He stated that sustained revenue growth and continued progress on cost and efficiency initiatives were responsible for the rise in operating profit.

Mr Alade-Akinyemi noted that the company will continue to leverage the industrial and technical expertise of its partner, Huaxin Building Materials Ltd, to further enhance operations and unlock additional efficiency gains.

He stated that the company would continue to focus on disciplined capital deployment and tight cost control in its operations while unlocking opportunities aligned with its growth priorities, explaining that the company’s volume growth, evident in sustained momentum in consumer demand, resulted from easing macroeconomic pressures and reduced global supply chain disruptions.

“We anticipate continued market expansion from Nigeria’s infrastructure and construction sector demand, underpinned by improving economic fundamentals and demand across key segments.

“Within this context, we remain focused on capturing volume growth opportunities across its operating markets, while maintaining disciplined cost optimisation initiatives to safeguard margins amidst global tensions,” he said.

While expressing profound appreciation to customers and loyal stakeholders for their support, he noted that the company would continue to do its best to deliver consistent performance and long-term value to shareholders.

“Our sustainability-led growth model continues to anchor our long-term value creation agenda, supported by the effective execution of our strategic priorities and an unwavering commitment to operational excellence,” he added.

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Economy

Cooking Gas Price Soars 12.6% as Nigerians Struggle to Survive

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cooking gas outlet

By Adedapo Adesanya

The average price of refilling a 5kg cooking gas cylinder surged 12.60 per cent in March 2026 to N7,655.73 from N6,799.18 in February 2026, according to the latest estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS disclosed this in its Cooking Gas Price Watch for March, released this week.

It disclosed that on a year-on-year basis, the 5kg price climbed 4.55 per cent from N7,322.49 in March 2025, as Nigerians suffer the ripple effect of the Middle East crisis.

Kaduna had the highest state price at N9,212.21, followed by Lagos at N8,909.73, and Taraba at N8,802.78, while Bauchi recorded the lowest at N6,295.40, with Osun at N6,457.35, and Ondo at N6,598.10.

By zone, the North-West led at N8,137.81, trailed by the North-East at N7,890.53, while the South-South had the lowest at N7,300.95.

For 12.5kg cylinders, prices jumped 15.62 per cent month-on-month to N19,652.83 from N16,997.94 in the previous month, and rose 6.48 per cent year-on-year from N18,456.24.

Nasarawa hit the highest at N23,418.12, followed by Kaduna at N23,030.52, and Akwa Ibom at N22,816.74. Bauchi was lowest at N15,738.50, then Osun at N16,143.38, and Ondo at N16,495.25. The North-West zone averaged at N20,701.66, with the South-East lowest at N18,432.63.

The rise in the price of cooking fuel came as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected prices of liquified natural gas (LNG) and over 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of global LNG supplies. Coupled with other issues like volatile exchange rates, global market swings, and high transport costs to northern rural areas, the cost continued to bite.

LPG, priced in US Dollars, faces higher landing costs from Naira devaluation and imported supply reliance.

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Economy

NGX Group Shareholders Approve One-For-Three Bonus Share Issue

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NGX Group AGM shareholders

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The one-for-three bonus share issue proposed by the board of Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited has been approved by shareholders.

The approval was given at the 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the organisation on Wednesday. They also authorised the payment of the proposed N2.00 per share dividend for 2025.

Shareholders applauded the board and management for the group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.

They okayed the re-election of Mr Umaru Kwairanga as the chairman, Okechukwu Itanyi as an independent non-executive director, and Mrs Ojinika Olaghere as an independent non-executive director.

Speaking at the event, the president of New Dimension Shareholders Association, Mr Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the firm for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution.

“The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.

Similarly, the chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Mr Boniface Okezie, lauded the group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development.

“The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.

Mr Kwairanga, while addressing investors, appreciated them for their continued support and reaffirmed the board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery, saying, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses.

|As a board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”

The chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”

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