Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A targeted fiscal incentive designed to unlock the long-awaited Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Bonga Southwest Aparo (BSWA) deepwater project has been approved by President Bola Tinubu.
The approval followed months of intensive technical and commercial negotiations involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as the concessionaire, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, and the chief executive of Shell, Mr Wael Sawan.
In a statement signed on Tuesday by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr Andy Odeh, it was disclosed that the project is estimated to attract about $20 billion in Foreign Direct Investment and position Nigeria for a new era of deepwater production.
It was said that it has the potential to attract strategic investments and accelerate sustainable economic growth, adding that it signals renewed confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction and its resolve to translate reform momentum into tangible investment outcomes.
The chief executive of NNPC, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, said, “This approval is a testament to the President’s leadership, NNPC’s disciplined execution and our ability to structure complex, bankable transactions that deliver value for Nigeria.
“For nearly two decades, the Bonga Southwest project remained stalled. Today, under President Tinubu’s reform-driven leadership and through NNPC’s sustained advocacy, we have broken that logjam. This is what partnership, persistence, and policy clarity can achieve.”
“This milestone further affirms NNPC’s commitment, under the President’s leadership, to unlocking Nigeria’s vast energy potential through partnerships, disciplined innovation and execution excellence,” he further stated.
The Bonga Southwest project will be the first FID on a Nigeria deepwater Production Sharing Contract asset since 2008, re-establishing Nigeria as a premier deepwater investment destination.
The fiscal package approved by President Tinubu includes an enhanced Production Tax Credit and resolution of the 2021 dispute settlement agreement, creating a competitive framework that balances national value with investor returns.
The Bonga Southwest Aparo project, operated by Shell with all IOCs in Nigeria as partners, will create over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs, and deliver 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 140 million standard cubic feet per day of gas upon completion.
NNPC Limited, as concessionaire, worked closely with SNEPCo and the broader contractor party to develop alternative fiscal solutions that address structural constraints while protecting Nigeria’s long-term interests.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N5.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report.
This affirmed that the country’s exports rose faster than imports for yet another quarter.
The report showed that the country’s total merchandise trade stood at N36.02 trillion in the period under review, higher than the N33.93 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 by 6.19 per cent, but lower than the N36.60 trillion achieved in the previous quarter by 1.58 per cent.
Total exports were valued at N20.60 trillion, accounting for 57.18 per cent of total trade. This represents a 7.42 per cent increase from ₦19.18 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2024 and 2.92 per cent higher than the N20.01 trillion posted in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Meanwhile, imports came in at N15.43 trillion during the period, 4.59 per cent more than the N14.75 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024, but 7.02 per cent lower than the N16.59 trillion of the preceding quarter.
The NBS report showed that Nigeria’s export trade continued to be dominated by crude oil, which was valued at N12.96 trillion and accounted for about 62.89 per cent of total exports, while non-crude oil exports were valued at N7.64 trillion, representing 37.11 per cent of total exports, and non-oil products contributed N3.17 trillion or 15.38 per cent of the export value.
The NBS noted that India, the Netherlands, the United States, France and Spain were Nigeria’s major export partners during the quarter.
On the import side, China remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner, followed by India, the United States, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates.
Major commodities exported during the period included crude oil, liquefied natural gas, petroleum gases, urea and cocoa beans, while key imports included gas oil, motor spirit, crude petroleum oils, cane sugar for refining and durum wheat.
The stats office added that the country’s positive trade balance rose by more than 50 per cent compared with the previous quarter, reflecting a stronger export performance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday asked the Senate to screen and confirm Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the Minister of State for Finance, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite.
The President made the request through a letter read on the floor of the Senate by the Senate President, Mr Godswill Akpabio, after a three-week recess for the budget defence exercise.
The request was subsequently referred to the Committee of the Whole for further legislative consideration.
President Tinubu also sought the confirmation of Mr Magnus Abe as Chairman of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), alongside two commissioner nominees.
The Senate President also read another letter from the President seeking confirmation of Mr Mainasara Illo as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Nigeria Anti-Doping Centre. The nomination was referred to the Senate committees on Narcotics and Drugs and Sports for joint screening.
Another letter from Mr Tinubu sought confirmation of Mr Francis Ifeanyi Asogwa as a commissioner representing the South-East in a federal commission. The nomination was referred to the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Human Rights, and Legal Matters for screening.
The Senate also received requests from the President to confirm two nominees as commissioners of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission: Mrs Amina Gamawa from Bauchi State and Mr Abdullahi Murktar from Kaduna State.
All nominations have been referred to the relevant committees for further legislative action and screening.
The nomination of the former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as minister was announced in a statement by presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, last week.
Mrs Uzoka-Anite will now move to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, as the Minister of State, her third portfolio in the administration, the presidential spokesman added.
The 50-year-old is a public policy expert, an accountant, and an economist.
He attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in accountancy and finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
The Senate also received the 2026 statutory budget of the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) from President Tinubu for consideration and approval.
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