Economy
2017 Tax & Fiscal Policy Prospects

By Taiwo Oyedele
Now that 2017 is here
We often have new hopes and high expectations at the turn of new events including the turn of a new year regardless of past experiences and notwithstanding our current reality.
As a country Nigeria has expectations for tax and so are individuals and organisations. To a large extent and under normal circumstances, tax should be relatively more predictable given that the rules, and administration are totally within the control of appropriate authorities. Unlike attempting to predict the weather for a whole year or other natural and supernatural events.
In any case, here are my key predictions for the tax environment in 2017 based on instinct, observable trends, behaviour of key actors in the tax system, and analysis of past patterns.
Tax Policy
There is a revised National Tax Policy awaiting government approval for implementation. It is expected that the Policy will be approved and implementation will commence but with very little traction due to vested interests and insufficient buy-in from those who need to make the required changes.
The 2017 Budget of the Federal Government of Nigeria and the 2017-2019 Medium Term Expenditure Framework have no specific proposals to increase tax rates or impose new taxes in 2017. The budget speech was silent on key tax policies but stated a commitment to align fiscal, monetary and trade policies. There are plans to revive the Export Expansion Grant scheme.
Government will focus on measures to discourage imports which suggest that import duties and waivers may be revised. Already we have seen a revision in some duty rates announced towards the end of 2016 partly designed towards the implementation of the new ECOWAS Common External Tariffs regime.
The ongoing review of tax incentives will be completed and should have a positive impact on government revenue if it addresses current abuse and plug existing leakages.
Tax Administration
Government is less bullish about non-oil revenue in 2017 compared to 2016 given the recent abysmal performance. It is expected that due to losses being reported by many companies in addition to other tax attributes such as unutilised capital allowances, the government tax take will be lower than anticipated especially from Companies Income Tax.
VAT collection is likely to improve partly due to the impact of the government social welfare scheme of conditional cash transfer and increased enforcement of compliance by FIRS but will still perform much below its potentials.
The aggressive stance by government at all levels will continue and intensify. In addition to imposition of stiff penalty and interest there is likely to be criminal prosecutions. Guidelines from the FIRS will continue to be hazy and request for rulings and direction by taxpayers may not receive prompt attention.
Internally generated revenue drive will continue to be on the front burner but still only an insignificant progress will be made due to the haphazard approach and the prevailing harsh economic condition.
It is counter-intuitive that many politicians play politics with revenue generation by placing political considerations ahead of professionalism. Unfortunately many lawmakers, administrators and policymakers lack proper understanding of the tax system. This coupled with undue political interference and vested interests mean that tax revenue will continue to be disappointingly low.
The FCT Internal Revenue Service will make some progress towards the full implementation of its mandate. Adoption and implementation of e-tax systems by various tax authorities will continue to be slow and ineffective.
More stakeholders will trigger the necessary provisions of the Freedom of Information Act to request for relevant information on tax administration, spending and expenditure control.
Some of the initiatives by the FIRS such as joint audit and use of consultants will continue to face implementation hurdles and unlikely to yield any major results. A number of tax authorities will introduce tax amnesty in order to expand the tax net and encourage voluntary compliance.
Tax Regulation
There will be some progress with the restructured Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) with a high possibility for the governance framework being passed into law but other aspects of the Bill which are more controversial including the fiscal regime, derivation formula and host community issues will remain unresolved.
The proposed 9% Communication Service Tax will not see the light of day in its current form due to public resistance, bad timing which may be considered as insensitive and poor articulation of the justifications for the tax.
There will be some efforts to begin a comprehensive tax law review in 2017. The attempt to broaden the scope of stamp duty to cover savings account deposits, among others, will not yield any positive result as well as the plan to charge VAT on international passports.
Nigeria will sign more tax treaties for the avoidance of double taxation but ratification at the National Assembly necessary to domesticate the treaties will continue to be slow.
Tax Justice
The Tax Appeal Tribunal will be reconstituted. The aggressive level of tax audits by tax authorities especially the progress being made by the FIRS regarding transfer pricing reviews will lead to more disputes and hence a rise in tax appeal cases.
More tax disputes will be resolved in favour of taxpayers due to untenable positions taken by the tax authorities. The judiciary will generally continue to struggle with proper and timely dispensation of tax cases due to lack of in-depth tax knowledge especially in more complex situations and evolving areas.
The Global Tax Space
The OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) action plan will continue to be a major area of focus for tax authorities around the world. Many countries will enact new laws or amend existing ones to provide a legal framework for its implementation. However, there will be very little progress in Africa including Nigeria as many countries will be unable to make the necessary legal changes. Many more countries will subscribe to the Common Reporting Standards and join the multilateral treaties for collaboration, and exchange of information but implementation will be sketchy.
There will be some tax leaks but not at the same level and magnitude of the 2016 Panama Papers. The scrutiny of tax havens will increase and tax ‘sweetheart deals’ will be challenged both legally but more importantly from a morality standpoint.
The new ECOWAS Common External Tariff scheme will continue to experience poor implementation by member countries thereby undermining the regional integration efforts.
2017 Tax Resolutions
Just in case you do not have any New Year resolutions for tax, you need to commit to paying your taxes correctly and on time. Tax will not just be a compliance matter but a business continuity and sustainability issue. More importantly, as a taxpayer you must hold government accountable for the taxes paid. This will create more tax awareness and citizen engagement.
Overall, the tax journey in 2017 will be bumpy but I am cautiously optimistic that it will end in safe landing albeit with some bruises.
Economy
Crude Oil Prices Climb on Fears of Prolonged Iran War Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices climbed about 3 per cent on Monday as worries over supply disruption from the Iran war offset a report that the US had agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian crude during talks.
Brent futures rose $2.84 or 2.6 per cent to $112.10 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery jumped $3.24 or 3.1 per cent to $108.66 per barrel.
Drone attacks on both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia further dimmed hopes of any de-escalation in the region.
The drone strikes included an attack that led to a fire near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE, with the country’s defence ministry saying two other drones had been successfully dealt with. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones that entered its airspace from Iraq.
These attacks are just the latest in a string of attacks on US allies in the region after President Donald Trump launched Project Freedom, his latest attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for trade.
The lack of a breakthrough on an Iran agreement during President Trump’s visit to China also added to upward pressure for oil prices, with fears of major global shortages now rising rapidly.
Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ worth left due to the conflict and the closure of the strait to shipping.
The head of the Paris-based agency, Mr Fatih Birol, said the release of strategic reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but they were “not endless”.
Reuters cited an Iranian media report that the US had accepted in the new text to waive Iran’s oil sanctions during the period of talks, also reporting that Pakistan has shared with the US a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East.
According to the Financial Times, Scotland-based economists are now examining a scenario where Brent crude surges to $180 per barrel if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for an extended period.
In China, growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output cooling and retail sales sinking to more than three-year lows as the world’s second-biggest economy faced higher energy costs from the Iran war and persistently weak domestic demand.
Economy
FG Unveils Tax Ombud Office’s Website, Toll-Free Call Centre
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to building a transparent, accountable and citizen-focused tax administration system, with the unveiling of the official website and launch of the toll-free call centre of the Tax Ombud Office.
The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr Mohammed Idris, on Monday described the development as a major step toward improving public confidence in the country’s tax system and enhancing access to complaint-resolution services for taxpayers.
“This is a major milestone in strengthening public trust, improving accessibility, and promoting fairness in Nigeria’s tax administration system. Effective communication and citizen engagement remain central to the success of ongoing economic reforms such as this,” the minister said.
He noted that the Mr Bola Tinubu-led administration was focused on implementing reforms aimed at strengthening revenue generation, ensuring fiscal sustainability and driving national development.
According to him, “Under the visionary leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the federal government remains steadfast in its commitment to building a stronger, more resilient, and prosperous economy through bold and strategic reforms.”
The minister stressed the importance of taxation in national development, saying it provides resources needed for investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, transportation and security.
He, however, maintained that tax administration must be built on trust, transparency and fairness rather than enforcement alone.
“Tax administration cannot succeed on enforcement alone. It must be supported by public trust, transparency, fairness, and effective communication,” Mr Idris stated.
He explained that the Tax Ombud Office was created to serve as a bridge between taxpayers and tax authorities by providing a fair and professional platform for handling complaints and resolving disputes.
The minister also commended the introduction of the toll-free call centre and official website, describing them as important tools for improving public access to information and removing communication barriers.
“The launch of the Toll-Free Call Centre demonstrates a commitment to removing communication barriers and ensuring that Nigerians can easily seek information, make enquiries, and resolve complaints without unnecessary difficulties or financial burden,” he added.
Mr Idris further emphasised the need for sustained civic education and public enlightenment to encourage voluntary tax compliance and responsible citizenship.
“Tax education is not just about revenue generation; it is about building a culture of national participation and shared responsibility,” he said.
The minister warned that misinformation and poor communication often weaken public trust in reforms, calling for stronger collaboration among government institutions, the media, civil society groups and other stakeholders.
“Misinformation and inadequate communication often contribute to distrust and resistance to reforms. This underscores the importance of strategic media engagement and sustained public communication,” he noted.
He pledged the continued support of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation in sensitising Nigerians on tax reforms, taxpayers’ rights and available complaint-resolution mechanisms.
Economy
Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.
In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.
He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”
The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.
“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”
According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”
He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”
“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.
“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.
“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.
“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.
Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”
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