Economy
Fitch Lauds Rise in Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows to Nigeria
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘.
In its latest rating released last Friday, the global agency pointed out that the positive outlook partly reflected reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.
According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.”
It noted that in Nigeria, exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved; CBN’s financing of the government scaled back, with administrative efficiency measures being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.
“The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.
“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of $4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding $2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).
“Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71 per cent post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile,” it stated.
Fitch anticipated further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024, following the 600 basis points hike to 24.75 per cent since February 2024, alongside tightening of reserve requirements and, “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.”
“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2 per cent year-on-year in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3 per cent in 2024 and 18.2 per cent in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5 per cent.
“Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3 percentage points (pp) in 2024 to 4.5 per cent of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.
“We project a two pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6 per cent, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1 per cent in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.
“We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages,” it added.
Economy
Lokpobiri Warns Oil License Bidders Against Hoarding
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, has issued a stern warning to oil and gas investors that petroleum licences in Nigeria are strictly for active development, not asset hoarding or speculative holding, declaring that operators must drill or risk losing their rights.
He made this admonition while delivering his message at the 2025 Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) Licensing Bid Round Conference in Lagos, where he outlined the government’s hardline stance on asset utilisation and investor accountability.
“The oil assets in portfolio are not mere symbols or souvenirs,” Mr Lokpobiri said, adding that, “Holders of licences are obligated to drill, drill and drill for a shared benefit for the Government, Nigerians and the operators.”
He stressed that the administration is determined to ensure petroleum assets are translated into tangible economic value, noting that licences are time-bound rights granted solely for productive use.
“These assets belong to the Federal Government, and licences are granted strictly for a defined period for productive use, not passive ownership,” the minister said. “Our licensing framework is designed to eliminate speculation and ensure that only serious, capable investors participate.”
Mr Lokpobiri also issued a strong caution to bidders seeking to participate in the 2025 licensing round, urging them to fully understand the process and obligations before submitting bids.
“As prospects take part in this bid round, a clear understanding of the modus operandi guiding the process is essential,” he said, recalling previous bid rounds where some winners attempted to reverse their commitments.
“Past experiences have shown instances where some winning bidders sought refunds based on unmet expectations or perceived asset limitations,” Lokpobiri stated. “Such actions are untenable, as there is no provision in law for the refund of a bid already won.”
According to him, the conference was convened to remove ambiguity and protect the integrity of the licensing system, stressing that the government would strictly enforce all contractual obligations arising from the process.
“This conference serves to provide clarity upfront,” he said. “Participants must be fully informed, deliberate and committed, as the Government will uphold the sanctity of the process and enforce all obligations.”
The minister’s remarks reinforce the Federal Government’s broader push to accelerate upstream development, boost production and attract only technically and financially capable investors into Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, amid renewed licensing activity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Economy
NGX Removes Embargo on Trading in Premier Paints Stocks After Four Years
By Dipo Olowookere
The suspension earlier placed on Premier Paints Plc, preventing investors from buying and selling its stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, has now been lifted.
The embargo was removed on Wednesday, a notice from the stock exchange, seen by Business Post, disclosed.
Almost four years ago, Premier Paints was suspended from the bourse due to the inability of its board to file the company’s financial results.
The NGX had on July 1, 2022, informed the investing community it had prohibited the trading of the organisation’s securities “in line with the provisions of Rule 3.1: Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing (Default Filing Rules).
The part of the rules provides that: “If an Issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period, the exchange will; a) send to the issuer a second filing deficiency notification within two business days after the end of the cure period, b) suspend trading in the issuer’s securities, and c) notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours of the suspension.”
In the latest disclosure dated Wednesday, January 14, 2026, and signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the NGX, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, it was revealed that Premier Paints has now done the needful.
“The company has now filed all outstanding financial statements to Nigerian Exchange Limited.
“In view of the company’s submission of its outstanding financial statements, and pursuant to Rule 3.3 of the Default Filing Rules, which states that; The suspension of trading in the issuer’s securities shall be lifted upon submission of the relevant accounts provided The exchange is satisfied that the accounts comply with all applicable rules of the exchange. The exchange shall thereafter also announce through the medium by which the public and the SEC was initially notified of the suspension, that the suspension has been lifted, trading license holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the suspension placed on trading on the shares of Premier Paints Plc was lifted (on) Wednesday, January 14, 2026,” the circular stated.
Economy
FG Foresees Nigerian Economy Growing by 4.68% in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms, the federal government said on Thursday.
The projection was outlined by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, during the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.
Mr Edun said Nigeria had moved beyond the crisis-management phase of recent years and was now entering a period of economic consolidation, where stability must translate into growth, jobs and improved living standards.
According to the minister, two years of difficult reforms have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, creating a platform for sustained expansion.
Inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025. Foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $45.5 billion.
GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion, Mr Edun said.
He warned, however, that Nigeria could not afford to reverse course.
Mr Edun said Nigeria cannot afford to pause or retreat from its reform agenda adding that the success of the consolidation phase would determine whether recent gains deliver productive jobs and shared prosperity.
The finance minister also addressed public concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt stock, which stood at about N152 trillion, insisting that the increase was largely the result of transparency and exchange rate adjustments rather than fresh borrowing.
He explained that about N30 trillion of the figure reflected previously unrecognised Ways and Means advances, now formally recorded, while nearly N49 trillion resulted from the revaluation of foreign debt following exchange rate reforms.
Despite the higher nominal figure, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 36.1 per cent, which the minister said remained among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.
Reviewing fiscal outcomes in 2025, Mr Edun said the government maintained discipline despite revenue pressures, particularly from the oil and gas sector.
The fiscal deficit was kept at about 3.4 per cent of GDP, while non-oil revenue performance improved and allocations to states increased, strengthening fiscal federalism.
He also said the government achieved 84 per cent capital budget execution for 2024 projects during the transition period.
The minister noted that the 2026 Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity, currently under deliberation by the National Assembly, would prioritise growth-enhancing investments.
The budget proposes N58.18 trillion in total spending, including N26 trillion for capital expenditure, representing about 44 per cent of the total budget, one of the largest capital spending plans in Nigeria’s history.
Inflation is projected to average 16.5 per cent in 2026, while the exchange rate is expected to stabilise around N1,400/$1.
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