Economy
Fitch Lauds Rise in Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows to Nigeria
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘.
In its latest rating released last Friday, the global agency pointed out that the positive outlook partly reflected reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.
According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.”
It noted that in Nigeria, exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved; CBN’s financing of the government scaled back, with administrative efficiency measures being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.
“The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.
“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of $4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding $2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).
“Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71 per cent post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile,” it stated.
Fitch anticipated further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024, following the 600 basis points hike to 24.75 per cent since February 2024, alongside tightening of reserve requirements and, “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.”
“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2 per cent year-on-year in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3 per cent in 2024 and 18.2 per cent in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5 per cent.
“Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3 percentage points (pp) in 2024 to 4.5 per cent of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.
“We project a two pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6 per cent, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1 per cent in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.
“We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages,” it added.
Economy
Geo-Fluids Seeks Approval to Raise Share Capital to N25bn
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the players in the hydrocarbon business in Nigeria, Geo-Fluids Plc, which trades its securities on the NASD OTC Securities Exchange, is planning to restructure its share capital with an increased of about 1,090 per cent.
Next Monday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting (AGM) and one of the resolutions to be tabled to shareholders by the board is an authorisation for raising the share capital from N2.1 billion to N25.0 billion.
This is to be achieved by creating an additional 45,742,332,488 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the firm.
Funds from this action would be used to expand the business scope to include hydrocarbons, mining, and natural resource development.
“That the share capital of the company be and is hereby increased from N2,128,833,756 to N25,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the company,” a part of the resolutions read.
In addition, Geo-Fluids wants approval, “To undertake the business of bitumen production and processing in all its forms, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, treatment, blending, storage, packaging, distribution, marketing, importation, exportation, shipping, transportation, trading, and general supply of bitumen, its derivatives, by-products, and ancillary materials; and to carry on all other related or incidental undertakings, services, or operations that may be considered advantageous, beneficial, or necessary for the advancement, expansion, or diversification of the bitumen industry.”
Also, it wants the authority of shareholders, “To engage in the acquisition, development, and management of mining assets and concessions for the purpose of exploring, extracting, processing, and producing hydrocarbons, oil and gas, minerals, and other natural resources; and to develop, mine, and process coal, industrial minerals, and other raw materials required for industrial, commercial, energy, or infrastructural purposes, together with all related activities necessary to ensure the effective exploitation, utilisation, and commercialisation of such resources.”
Further, it wants, “To operate and participate in all segments of the oil and gas value chain, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, processing, storage, blending, supply, marketing, distribution, importation, exportation, transportation, shipping, and trading of crude oil, refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas, compressed natural gas, and other related hydrocarbons and derivatives; and to establish, own, operate, or participate in facilities, ventures, or partnerships that advance the energy and petroleum sector.”
At the forthcoming meeting, the organisation wants its name changed from Geo-Fluids Plc to The Geo-Fluids Group Plc.
Economy
PENGASSAN Kicks Against Full Privatisation of Refineries
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned against the full privatisation of the country’s government-owned refineries.
Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is putting in place mechanisms to sell the moribund refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
However, this has met fresh resistance, with the President of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, saying selling a 100 per cent stake would mean the government losing total control of the refineries, a situation he warned would be detrimental to Nigeria’s energy security.
Mr Osifo said the union was advocating the sale of about 51 per cent of the government’s stake while retaining 49 per cent, which he described as being more beneficial to Nigerians.
“PENGASSAN, even before the time of Comrade Peter Esele, had been advocating that government should sell its shares. The reason why we don’t want government to sell it 100 per cent to private investors is because of the issue bordering on energy security,” he said on Channels Television, late on Sunday.
“So, what we have advocated is what I have said earlier. If government sells 51 per cent stake in the refinery, what is going to happen? They will lose control, so that is actually selling. But for the benefit of Nigerians, retain 49 per cent of it.“
The PENGASSAN leader maintained that if the government had heeded the union’s advice in the past, the oil industry would be in a better state than it is today.
He addressed concerns in some quarters over whether investors would be willing to buy stakes in government-owned refineries, insisting that there are investors who would be interested.
“Yes, there are investors who surely will be willing to buy a stake in the refinery because our population in Nigeria is quite huge, and those refineries, when well maintained without political pressures and political interference, will work,” he said.
However, Mr Osifo warned that even if the government decides to sell a 51 per cent stake, it must ensure that a complete valuation is carried out to avoid selling the refineries cheaply.
Economy
SEC Gives Capital Market Operators Deadline to Renew Registration
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Capital market operators have been given a deadline by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the renewal of their registration.
A statement from the regulator said CMOs have till Saturday, January 31, 2026, to renew their registration, and to make the process seamless, an electronic receipt and processing of applications would commence in the first quarter of 2026.
“These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes.
“The commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, database-supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market,” the Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, was quoted as saying in the statement during an interview in Abuja over the weekend.
He noted that through the digital transformation portal, the organisation has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.
According to him, the agency has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.
“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.
“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability.
“Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.
“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable.
“These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability,” he stated.
Mr Agama affirmed that the nation’s capital market was clearly on a path toward digital transformation adding that there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.
“A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools.
“Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.
“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable,” he declared.
The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.
He, therefore, urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it will not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.
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