Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
For yet another month, Nigerian crude oil production fell in January 2022 as the country produced 1.5 million barrels per day, 180,000 barrels per day lower than what it is permitted to supply to the global market, though its production last month was the highest in five months.
Nigeria’s January output marked a recovery from the fourth quarter of last year when production was hit by a number of sabotage incidents and infrastructure issues.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which Nigeria is a member, saw its crude production increase again last month but the group fell further short of its target amid dwindling spare capacity.
Under the OPEC quota, Nigeria is expected to produce 1.68 million barrels per day level.
Alongside its allies known collectively as OPEC+ raised output by 260,000 barrels per day to 37.94 million barrels per day in January.
This is 800,000 below the target for the month, according to a survey by Argus.
The group is finding it increasingly difficult to keep pace with its monthly 400,000 barrels per day hike in quotas as spare capacity tightens.
Argus estimates that the coalition’s spare capacity could drop as low as 3.8million barrels per day by the end of March.
OPEC members accounted for much of last month’s increase, with Mideast Gulf producers delivering some of the largest hikes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — which hold most of the group’s remaining spare capacity — raised production by 100,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrels per day respectively.
Russia and Oman were the only non-OPEC members of the group that managed to raise production last month.
Russia, which is fast running out of spare capacity, delivered a 90,000 barrels per day increase to take its output above 10 million barrels per day for the first time since April 2020, but it was still short of its January quota.
Several of the group’s large producers saw their production decline last month, including Iraq, where crude exports were constrained by adverse weather, and Kazakhstan, where protests briefly interrupted operations at the Tengiz field.
Of the three OPEC countries that are exempt from quotas, Iran was the only one to increase output in January. Firmer exports pushed Iranian production 30,000 barrels per day higher.
Talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal and remove US sanctions on Iranian oil exports restarted this month.
After three months of consecutive gains, Venezuelan output dropped by 60,000 barrels per day in January. Venezuela has been importing Iranian condensate to dilute and upgrade extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco belt into an exportable heavy sour grade in recent months, but analysts note that the latest shipment was delayed, Argus noted.
