Feature/OPED

South Africa Reshapes its Democracy, Shows Readiness for Economic Transformation

Published

1 year ago

20/06/2024

By Professor Maurice Okoli

South Africa’s historic election results in late May 2024 were another credible testament which, by simple guiding definition, explicitly illustrated democracy as the aggregate will of the people. It was held as stipulated by its constitution. The diverse political expressions were presented through political parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and its largest rivals the Democratic Alliance (DA), the hard-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and uMkhonto weSizwe Party. Minority parties had their chance to participate, which made it fair and free for electoral progress in South Africa.

This is unlike what happened in Nigeria the so-called giant of Africa, where an election process was mired with ballot box snatching, rigging, violence, and irregularities thereby totally undermining the will of the people.

Despite heightened criticisms, South Africa has illuminated an exemplary template of good governance. In most significant practice, adherence of good governance is one fundamental principle that African leaders have to uphold, as a guiding principle combined with transparency and accountability, to shy away from the shame of being accused over functional political irresponsibility.

Worth reiterating that the political initiative taken by the African National Congress, headed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, to form a coalition has set the rhythmical parameters for the evolutionary processes, without much resistance to the obvious glaring weaknesses and shortfalls of the past administration. The creation of the new executive government emboldened the concept of “unity in diversity” and would have to float a common understanding towards ratifying and removing the existing complexities and contradictions within the framework of aspirations stipulated in the constitution. In another context, it has some relevance for the current shifting geopolitical situation and emerging multipolar architecture.

With its chequered history behind it, South Africa needs comprehensive result-oriented development initiatives, and this can only come through striking compromise and consequently be adopted by the coalition government. The political stalwarts such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), now grossly involved in treading the tricky balanced act approved by the parliament on June 14, 2024, raised unswerving hopes for South Africa, the southern African nation of approximately 62 million.

It was a breakthrough to merge political forces marking the ‘great beginning’ of a new chapter, as Economic Freedom Fighters, uMkhonto weSizwe, and other parties have remained antagonistic, and have been termed as the game-losers of the century, marking a significant shift in South African political history after 30 years of ANC dominance. It has some implications, though.

The preceding political agitations culminating in the coalition agreement marked the most significant political change since Nelson Mandela led the ANC to victory in 1994, ending apartheid. “Today is a historic day for our country,” DA leader John Steenhuisen stated, highlighting a new chapter focused on the nation’s interests and future. Similarly acknowledging all these without the least doubts, Ramaphosa described the success as “a remarkable change” and “It will once again be a privilege and pleasure to serve this great nation … (as) president,” said the 71-year-old Ramaphosa, emphasizing a new era of hope and cautious inclusivity. (1)

Tackling Existing Tasks

The newly created executive government would necessarily have to determine the scope of transformation, and the contours for a broader strategic economic resuscitation to uplift South Africa back to its status as Africa’s economic power and an influencer on the global stage, starting from the regional bloc, Southern African Development Community (SADC) and to continental organization, the African Union (AU).

As President Cyril Ramaphosa secured the second term, the preliminary pathway must lead towards tackling the existing pertinent issues that were raised during the election campaign and resulted in a fall of supporters (42%), below the simple majority, for the ANC.

Several reports monitored for this article, the ANC’s decline primarily stemmed from persistent issues such as high poverty, inequality, crime, rolling power cuts, and internal corruption. The DA’s entry into national government signifies a watershed moment for South Africa, as the party advocates for scrapping some of the ANC’s Black empowerment programs, aiming for good governance and a strong economy to benefit all citizens.

Perhaps, South Africa’s newly instituted government has to acknowledge the undeniably challenging future tasks that would require adopting suitable strategies for implementing a set of result-expected policy directions. Across the board, however, experts and investors have already welcomed the coalition, expecting policy continuity and accelerated reforms. It is worth mentioning here that the coalition agreement also outlines priorities, inextricably linked to comprehensive sustainable development, such as economic growth, job creation, land reform, infrastructure development, and fiscal sustainability.

South Africa is the fourth-most populous country in Africa, 80 per cent of the population is black, located entirely south of the equator, after Tanzania. But the most paramount feature is that South Africa has a mixed economy. South Africa’s economy is the most industrialized and technologically advanced in Africa respectively, and has the second largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. According to research reports, South Africa has a private wealth of $651 billion making its population the richest in Africa followed by Egypt with $307 billion and Nigeria with $228 billion. (2) Despite these, South Africa is still burdened by a relatively high rate of poverty and unemployment and is ranked in the top ten countries in the world.

Unlike most of the world’s industrialized countries, Energy power outrages have bugged down industrial production and domestic utilization. Electricity deficits in an increasing headache across Africa, and the majority of the African countries lack access to this vital component. African Development Bank and African Import-Export Bank reports said half the total of Africa’s population has no daily access to electricity. The impact is considered simply as immeasurable, though surmountable. South Africa is currently the only country on the African continent that possesses a nuclear power plant. The primary electricity generator is Eskom, the utility is the largest producer of electricity in Africa and also needs capital repairs as the equipment is obsolete and experiences frequent breakdowns, consequently limiting the power supply.

Due to severe mismanagement and corruption at Eskom, the company is R392bn ($22bn) in debt and is unable to meet the demands of the South African power grid. Due to this, Eskom implemented load-shedding, which is periodically switching off electricity to specific power grids in specific time frames. In South Africa, load shedding is done to prevent a failure of the entire system when the demand for electricity strains the capacity of Eskom’s power-generating system. Load shedding is characterized by periods of widespread national-level rolling blackouts.

Dr Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), and current Chairman of Stratek Global, a nuclear project management company based in Pretoria, suggested in a report that the ultimate pathway forward, possibly the “energy mix” can effectively fill certain functions in electricity provision, but “much financial arm-twisting has taken place, in the forms of supposedly soft loans and other inducements to save mankind from the sins of the Industrial Revolution and modern day industrialists.” (4)

Under former President Jacob Zuma, the power crisis in South Africa steadily worsened, as the authorities tried to make up their minds on which direction to follow, according to Kemm. In reality, Zuma pushed for more nuclear power. However, this initiative was vehemently opposed by anti-nuclear green groups who are significantly funded by the countries exporting their green solutions. Zuma-era project to build an additional 9600 MW of nuclear power was torpedoed by the anti-nuclear greens. Then President Cyril Ramaphosa deposed President Jacob Zuma. A hallmark of the tenure of President Ramaphosa has been dithering and uncertainty. The country hoped for a show of strong leadership under President Ramaphosa, but that did not materialize. Thankfully, South Africa is now advancing the nuclear agenda not only by announcing the planned building of a new large nuclear power station but also by supporting the introduction of Small Modular Reactors.

Combined with the energy question discussed above, South Africa is widely infected by corruption. It scored 41 points out of 100 on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. Notwithstanding that, more examples of corruptible governments are abounding in Africa. Critics noted that African leaders are fond of making unilateral decisions, and bartering natural resources without cabinet approval and parliamentary discussions. And according to critics, Africans consistently blame their poor performance on external factors. Corruption is a global phenomenon, but that socioeconomic cancer should be tackled seriously in South Africa.

Senior Writer Kate Whiting indicated, in her report on Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, that Corruption is hindering Africa’s economic, political, and social development… More than this, it affects the well-being of individuals, families, and communities.” The report attributed the deterioration of the rule of law and democratic institutions, as well as a rapidly shrinking space for civil society and independent media to corruption in Africa.

Over the years from the apartheid era until today, there has been tremendous growth in multifaceted crimes across South Africa. Reasons could not be far-fetched, as, blacks are unemployed. The entire economy creates highly limited employment places, and again due to porous official policies. From April 2017 to March 2018, on average 57 murders were committed each day in South Africa. More than 526,000 South Africans were murdered from 1994 to 2019. As of February 2023, South Africa unbelievably has the sixth-highest crime rate in the world.

In an article headlined “Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy” published in June 2024, (5) Samir Bhattacharya, a research associate at Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, India, pointed to the possible impact on its future foreign policy and aspects of its implications. Moving forward, the next administration would need to give the country’s foreign policy issues serious attention, chief among them being the delicate balancing act between the West, China, and Russia. At a deeper level, the incoming administration must develop a realistic foreign policy agenda that inspires confidence among investors, both local and foreign. Due to its close ties to all of the superpowers and the BRICS countries, South Africa’s non-alignment approach to international affairs is unlikely to alter in the current environment.

However, there arises a firm need to keep in mind that South Africa still finds strength in its democratic system, which remains a cornerstone of stability and inclusivity. Due to its participation in numerous international issues and membership in groups such as the G20 and BRICS, South Africa is a significant global player. It has lately surpassed Nigeria to become the largest economy on the African continent. South Africa’s latest developments are closely watched not only in the continent but also globally.

Logical Glimpse into the Future

South Africa boasts of an excellent reputation on the global stage. It is also a member of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union. It is a founding member of the AU’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development. After apartheid ended, South Africa was readmitted to the Commonwealth of Nations. Chronicling history, Johannesburg hosted the latest XVI BRICS summit and continues to play a pivotal role in the BRICS association. China supported by Russia, in 2011, South Africa was enrolled into the informal association BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Jacob Zuma asserted that BRICS member countries would also work with each other through the UN, G20, and the India, Brazil South Africa (IBSA) forum.

According to local African and foreign critics, despite its widened bilateral relations with many foreign countries, and yet South Africa suffers from high youth unemployment, grappling with energy supply deficits, and many other economic obstacles discussed earlier in this article. Ramaphosa consistently attributes weak economic performance to external factors. In his speeches after the second inauguration on June 19, 2024, Ramaphosa unswervingly promised to embark on a swift and vigorous economic resuscitation of South Africa, and within the new geopolitical reality. Nonetheless, the past was seemingly a difficult time. Ramaphosa has to ‘walk the talk’ as illustrated by well-coined linguistic phrases to win the hearts of the working-class, entrepreneurs, and middle-class population. The logic behind his re-election and re-appointment signalizes a complete turning point and a new chapter, at first with steadfastness, cooperating and collaborating in a close-knitted manner with the broad coalition and stakeholders in readiness to adopt radical measures in dealing with the existing economic deficiencies, striving further to improve the economic status of South Africa. The new chapter brings in its fold the necessity to make contentious steps toward achieving visible economic progress and ensuring ultimate economic sovereignty, creating an inspiring bright future for the generations as stipulated within the constitution of South Africa.

References

Official speeches by DA leader John Steenhuisen and ANC Cyril Ramaphosa made available on the websites (June 2024).
“World Bank: South Africa” (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 April 2023.
Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, April 2023 report.
Ramaphosa’s Administration and the Electricity Challenges in South Africa. Dr Kelvin Kemm (May 2024) interview published by Eurasia Review.
Samir Bhattacharya, Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy (June 2024), interview published by Global Research.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club. As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: [email protected].

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How AI Levels the Playing Field for SMEs

Published

1 day ago

17/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Linda Saunders

Intro: In many small businesses, the owner often starts out as the bookkeeper, the customer-service desk, the IT technician and the person who steps in when a delivery goes wrong. With so many balls up in the air – and such little room for error – one dropped ball can derail the entire day and trigger a chain of problems that’s hard to recover from. Unlike larger companies that have the luxury of spreading the load across dedicated teams and systems, SMEs carry it all on a few shoulders.

South Africa’s SME sector carries significant weight, contributing around 19% of GDP and a third of formal employment, according to the latest available Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) 2024 review. That is causing persistent constraints, including tight margins, erratic demand, high administrative load, and limited internal capacity.

This is not unique to South Africa. Many smaller businesses across the continent still rely on manual processes. It is common to find sales records kept separately from customer notes, or inventory data that is updated only occasionally. The result is slow turnaround times, duplicated effort and a lack of visibility across the business. Given that SMEs have such a huge influence on national economies, accounting for over 90% of all businesses, between 20-40% of GDP in some African countries, and a major source of employment, providing around 80% of jobs, these operational constraints have a broad impact on economies.

What has changed in recent years is that digital tools once seen as the preserve of larger companies have become more attainable for smaller operators. They do not remove the structural challenges SMEs face, but they can ease the load. Better systems do not replace judgement, experience or customer relationships; they simply give small companies more room to work with.

Cloud-based systems, automation and integrated customer-management tools have become more affordable and easier to deploy. They do not remove the structural pressures facing small businesses, but they can ease the operational load and create more space for productive work.

Doing more with the teams SMEs already have

Small teams often end up wearing several hats. One person might take customer calls, update stock records, handle service issues and manage follow-ups. When demand rises, these manual processes become harder to sustain. Local surveys regularly point to this strain, showing that smaller companies spend significant portions of the week on paperwork, compliance and routine administrative tasks – work that adds little value but cannot be ignored.

This is where automation is proving useful. Routine tasks such as onboarding new customers, checking documents, routing queries to the right person, logging interactions and sending follow-ups can now run quietly in the background. In larger companies, whole departments handle this work. In small businesses, the same burden has traditionally fallen on one or two people. When these processes run reliably without constant attention, a business with 10 employees can manage busier periods without rushed outsourcing or slipping service standards.

The point is not to replace staff, but to reduce the operational drag that limits what small teams can deliver. Structured workflows give SMEs a level of steadiness they have rarely had the time or money to build themselves.

Using better data to make better decisions

A second constraint facing SMEs is disorganised information. When customer details are lost in email, sales notes in chat groups, stock figures in spreadsheets and queries in separate systems, decisions depend on whatever information happens to be at hand. Forecasting becomes guesswork, and early warning signs are easy to miss.

Putting all this information in a single place changes the quality of decision-making. When sales, service and stock data can be viewed together, patterns become easier to spot: which products are moving, which customers are becoming less active, where delays tend to occur, and which periods consistently drive higher demand.

Importantly, SMEs do not need corporate analytics teams for this. Modern CRM platforms can organise information automatically and surface basic trends. For retailers preparing for 2026, this can help avoid over – or under – stocking. For service businesses, it can highlight customers who may be at risk of leaving, prompting earlier intervention. In competitive markets, having clearer information is a practical advantage.

Building a foundation before the pressure arrives

Rapid growth can be as destabilising for SMEs as an economic downturn. When orders increase, manual processes quickly reach their limit. Errors are more likely, staff become overwhelmed and the customer experience suffers. Many small businesses only upgrade their systems once these problems appear, by which time the cost, both financial and reputational, is already significant.

Putting basic workflow tools and a unified customer record in place early provides a useful buffer. Tasks follow the same steps every time, reducing inconsistency. Customers reach the right person more quickly. Staff spend less time checking or re-entering information and more time on work that matters. These small operational gains compound over time, especially during busy periods.

This is not about chasing every new technology. It is about avoiding a common pattern in the SME sector: when demand rises, systems buckle, and growth becomes more difficult.

Confidence matters as much as capability

Smaller companies understandably worry about risk when adopting new systems. Data protection, monitoring, and compliance can feel daunting without an IT department. The advantage of modern platforms is that many of these protections, like encryption, audit trails, and event monitoring, are built in. Transparent design also helps SMEs understand how automated decisions are made and how customer data is handled.

This reassurance is important because SMEs should not have to choose between improving their operations and protecting their customers’ information.

2026 will reward readiness

Technology will not replace the qualities that give SMEs their edge: personal service, flexibility, and the ability to respond quickly to customer needs. What it can do is relieve the administrative load that prevents those strengths from being fully used.

SMEs that invest in simple automation and better data practices now will enter 2026 with greater capacity and clearer insight. They won’t be competing with larger companies by matching their resources, but by removing the disadvantages that have traditionally held them back.

In the year ahead, the most competitive businesses will not be the biggest; they’ll be the ones that prepared early for the year ahead.

Linda Saunders is the Country Manager & Senior Director Solution Engineering for Africa at Salesforce

Feature/OPED

Why Africa Requires Homegrown Trade Finance to Boost Economic Integration

Published

2 days ago

16/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Cyprian Rono

Africa’s quest to trade with itself has never been more urgent. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gaining momentum, governments are working to deepen intra-African commerce. The idea of “One African Market” is no longer aspirational; it is emerging as a strategic pathway for economic growth, job creation, and industrial competitiveness. Yet even as infrastructure and regulatory reforms advance, one fundamental question remains; how will Africa finance its cross-border trade, across markets with diverse currencies, regulations, and standards?

Today, only 15 to 18 percent of Africa’s internal trade happens within the continent, compared to 68 percent in Europe and 59 percent in Asia. Closing this gap is essential if AfCFTA is to deliver prosperity to Africa’s 1.3 billion people.

A major constraint is the continent’s huge trade finance deficit, which exceeds USD 81 billion annually, according to the African Development Bank. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which provide more than 80 percent of the continent’s jobs, are the most affected. Many struggle with insufficient collateral, stringent risk profiling and compliance requirements that mirror international banking standards rather than the realities of African business.

To build integrated value chains, exporters and importers must operate within trusted, predictable, and interconnected financial systems. This requires strong pan-African financial institutions with both local knowledge and continental reach.

Homegrown trade finance is therefore indispensable. Pan-African banks combine deep domestic roots with extensive regional reach, making them the most credible engines for financing trade integration. By retaining financial activity within the continent, homegrown lenders reduce exposure to external shocks and keep liquidity circulating locally. They also strengthen existing regional payment infrastructure such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), developed by the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and backed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, enabling faster, cheaper and seamless cross-border payments across the continent.

Digital transformation amplifies this advantage. Real-time payments, seamless Know-Your-Customer (KYC) verification, automated credit scoring and consistent service delivery across markets are essential for intra-African trade. Institutions such as Ecobank, operating in 34 African countries with integrated core banking systems, demonstrate how such digital ecosystems can enable continent-wide commerce.

Platforms such as Ecobank’s Omni, Rapidtransfer and RapidCollect, together with digital account-opening services, make it much easier for traders to operate across borders. Rapidtransfer enables instant, secure payments across Ecobank’s 34-country network, reducing delays in regional trade, while RapidCollect gives cross-border enterprises the ability to receive payments from multiple African countries into a single account with real-time confirmation and automated reconciliation. Together, these solutions create an integrated digital ecosystem that lowers friction, accelerates payments, and strengthens intra-African commerce.

Trust, however, remains a significant barrier. Cross-border commerce depends on the confidence that partners will honour contracts, deliver goods as promised, pay on time, and present authentic documentation. Traders often lack reliable information on potential partners, operate under different regulatory regimes, and exchange documents that are difficult to verify across borders. This heightens the risk of fraud, non-payment, and contractual disputes, discouraging businesss from expanding beyond familiar markets.

Technology is closing this trust gap. Artificial Intelligence enables lenders to assess risk using alternative data for SMEs without formal credit histories. Distributed ledger tools make shipping documents, certificates of origin, and inspection reports tamper-proof. In addition, supply-chain visibility platforms enable real-time tracking of goods and cross-border digital KYC ensures that both buyers and sellers are verified before any transaction occurs.

Ecobank’s Single Trade Hub embodies this trust infrastructure by offering a secure digital marketplace where buyers and sellers can trade with confidence, even in markets where no prior relationships exist. The platform’s Trade Intelligence suite provides customers instant access to market data from customs information and product classification tools across 133 countries.

Through its unique features such as the classification of best import/export markets, over 25,000 market and industry reports, customs duty calculators, and local and universal customs classification codes, businesses can accurately assess market opportunities, anticipate trends, reduce compliance risks, and optimise supply chains, ultimately helping them compete and grow in regional and global markets.

SMEs need more than financing. Many operate in cash-heavy cycles where suppliers and logistics providers require upfront payment. Lenders can support these businesses with advisory services, business intelligence, compliance guidance, and platforms for secure partner verification, contract negotiation, and secure settlement of payments. Trade fairs, industry forums, and partnerships with chambers of commerce further build the trust networks needed for cross-border trade.

Ultimately, Africa’s path toward meaningful trade integration begins with financial integration. AfCFTA’s promise will only be realised when enterprises can trade with confidence, knowing that payments will be honoured, partners verified, and disputes resolved. This requires collaboration between banks, regulators, and trade institutions, alongside harmonised financial regulations, interoperable payment systems, and continent-wide verification networks.

Africa can no longer rely on external actors to finance its trade. Its economic transformation depends on strong, trusted, and digitally enabled African financial institutions that understand Africa’s unique risks and opportunities. By building an African-led trade finance ecosystem, the continent can unlock liquidity, reduce dependence on external currencies, empower SMEs, and retain more value locally. Africa’s trade revolution will accelerate when its financing is driven by African institutions, African systems, and African ambition.

Cyprian Rono is the Director of Corporate and Investment Banking for Kenya and EAC at Ecobank Kenya

Feature/OPED

Tax Reform or Financial Exclusion? The Trouble with Mandatory TINs

Published

2 days ago

16/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Blaise Udunze

It is not only questionable but an aberration that a nation where over 38million Nigerians remain financially excluded, where trust in institutions is fragile, and where citizens are pressured under the weight of rising living costs, the use of Tax Identification Number (TIN) has been specified as the only option for their bank accounts operation from January 1, 2026 by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

In practice, the policy spearheaded by Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, is rooted in the Nigerian Tax Administration Act (NTAA), and the intention can be understood in the areas of improving tax compliance, widening the tax net, and formalizing economic activities. But in practice, the directive risks becoming yet another well-meaning reform that punishes the wrong people, disrupts financial inclusiveness, and potentially destabilises an already stressed economy.

Yes, Nigeria needs tax reforms. Yes, the country must broaden its tax base. And yes, public revenues must increase to address fiscal pressures.

But compelling citizens to obtain TINs as a condition for operating bank accounts is the wrong tool for the right objective.

Below are five core arguments against the directive, and sustainable alternatives that actually strengthen tax compliance without endangering banking access or punishing informal earners.

The Directive Risks Deepening Financial Exclusion

Nigeria still struggles with financial inclusion. According to several official assessments, over 38 million adults remain outside the formal financial system. Many of them operate small, irregular businesses, survive through subsistence earnings, or depend on cash-based livelihoods.

The Federal Government’s compulsory TIN-for-bank-accounts policy is built on the assumption that every banked Nigerian is structured, organised, and tax-ready. This is false.

For instance, the rural market woman with N30,000 in rotating savings, the okada rider who deposits cash once a week, the petty trader using a mobile POS agent account, the retiring pensioner managing a small monthly income, and the migrant worker sends small remittances to their family. These are not tax evaders; they are survivalists.

Most operate bank accounts not because they run formal businesses, but because those accounts are essential to modern financial life: receiving transfers, accessing loans, participating in digital commerce, saving against emergencies, and avoiding the risks of moving cash in insecure environments.

By creating an additional bureaucratic barrier, the directive risks pushing millions back into a cash-dominant shadow economy, precisely the opposite outcome of what Nigeria’s financial-sector reforms are trying to achieve.

Bank Accounts Are Not Proof of Taxable Income

The NTAA clarifies that the TIN requirement applies only to taxable persons, individuals engaged in trade, employment, or income-generating activities.

But herein lies the problem: banks cannot determine who is “taxable” and who is not. Banks only see deposits and withdrawals. They do not audit the source or consistency of income. They are not tax authorities.

A student may run a small online clothing resale gig. A retiree may occasionally rent out farmland.

A dependent may receive cash support from a relative abroad. A job seeker may get intermittent gifts from family.

Who decides which of these scenarios qualifies as taxable? Banks? FIRS? Or will citizens be expected to self-declare under threat of account restrictions?

The result will be confusion, over-compliance, and mass panic with banks indiscriminately demanding TINs from everyone to avoid regulatory penalties.

This not only contradicts the spirit of the law but also exposes ordinary Nigerians to harassment and arbitrary compliance requirements.

The Policy Could Trigger Disruption, Panic Withdrawals, and Cash Hoarding

Whenever Nigerians perceive threats to their access to funds, the natural reaction is withdrawal and hoarding. We saw it during:

– the 2023 Naira redesign crisis,

– the 2016 TSA-bank consolidation tightening, and multiple periods of financial instability.

Telling citizens that bank accounts may face “operational restrictions” if they do not obtain a TIN creates a predictable behavioural response: people will rush to withdraw money.

This would be disastrous for a banking system already pressured by:

– high interest rates,

– inflation eroding deposits,

– rising loan defaults, and

– declining public trust.

Any government policy that unintentionally creates an incentive for citizens to flee the formal banking system is counterproductive.

The TIN Requirement Will Become a Bureaucratic Nightmare

Even if millions of Nigerians want to comply, the system is not ready. Nigeria’s administrative infrastructure does not have the capacity to process tens of millions of TIN registrations within months without:

– long queues,

– delays,

– data mismatches,

– duplicate records, and

– systemic errors.

The National Identity Number (NIN)-SIM registration experience is a painful reminder of what happens when ambitious policy meets weak execution capacity.

– Citizens spent months in overcrowded enrolment centres.

– Millions were blocked from services.

– Data inconsistencies persisted.

– The economy suffered productivity losses.

If Nigeria could not seamlessly synchronise NIN and SIM data, how will it synchronise NIN, BVN, and TIN at a national scale without dislocation?

Forcing TIN Adoption Ignores the Real Problem: Nigeria’s Broken Tax Culture

The Federal Government’s real challenge is not that citizens lack TINs, but that they lack trust in how taxes are used.

A government cannot widen the tax net when:

– tax leakages remain widespread,

– citizens feel services do not match taxation,

– corruption perceptions are high,

– government spending lacks transparency, and

– taxpayers do not feel seen, heard, or valued.

Coercion does not build a tax culture. Engagement does. Policy does not create legitimacy. Accountability does.

If the Federal Government wants Nigerians to freely participate in the tax system, it must earn legitimacy first, not mandate compliance through financial restrictions.

What the Government Should Do Instead: A Smarter Path to Tax Reform

Instead of enforcing a policy that may backfire economically and socially, the Federal Government can adopt four smarter, people-centred alternatives.

– Automatic TIN Issuance Linked to NIN and BVN

Rather than forcing Nigerians to apply manually, the government should:

auto-generate TINs for all existing BVN/NIN holders,
send the TINs via SMS, email, and bank alerts,
allow self-activation only when needed for tax obligations.

This eliminates queues, delays, and confusion.

– Build a Voluntary Tax Compliance Culture Through Transparency and Incentives

Tax morale improves when citizens see value. Government should:

publish annual audited reports of tax revenue use,
incentivise compliant taxpayers with benefits (priority access to government grants, credit scoring, etc.),
simplify tax filings for small businesses.

People comply more when they feel respected, not coerced.

– Target High-Value Tax Evaders, Not Low-Income Account Holders

Nigeria’s real tax leakages come from:

large corporations shifting profits,
politically exposed persons,
illicit financial flows,
multinational tax avoidance strategies,
the informal “big money” class operating outside the banking system.

Instead of threatening small depositors, the government should strengthen:

FIRS intelligence and investigation units,
inter-agency data integration (CAC, Customs, Immigration),
beneficial ownership transparency enforcement.

The fight against tax evasion should focus on those hiding billions, not those depositing thousands.

– Strengthen Digital Tax Platforms for Easy Self-Registration and Compliance

If tax registration becomes as easy as opening a social media account, compliance will rise naturally. The government should build:

a mobile-first tax app,
simplified online TIN retrieval,
one-click tax filing for gig workers and small traders.

Digital convenience can achieve what regulatory coercion cannot.

Reform Should Not Punish the Public

No doubt, tax reforms are needed urgently, but they must come with a human face, an intelligent, equitable, and aligned with the realities of ordinary Nigerians.

The TIN-for-bank-accounts policy, while well-intentioned, risks undermining financial inclusion, triggering economic instability, and imposing unnecessary burdens on millions who are not tax evaders but survival-based earners.

Good tax policy is built on trust, not fear. On transparency, not threats. On civic legitimacy, not administrative compulsion.

If the Federal Government truly wants to modernise Nigeria’s tax system, it must focus not on restricting citizens’ access to their own money, but on: