Feature/OPED
South Africa Reshapes its Democracy, Shows Readiness for Economic Transformation
By Professor Maurice Okoli
South Africa’s historic election results in late May 2024 were another credible testament which, by simple guiding definition, explicitly illustrated democracy as the aggregate will of the people. It was held as stipulated by its constitution. The diverse political expressions were presented through political parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and its largest rivals the Democratic Alliance (DA), the hard-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and uMkhonto weSizwe Party. Minority parties had their chance to participate, which made it fair and free for electoral progress in South Africa.
This is unlike what happened in Nigeria the so-called giant of Africa, where an election process was mired with ballot box snatching, rigging, violence, and irregularities thereby totally undermining the will of the people.
Despite heightened criticisms, South Africa has illuminated an exemplary template of good governance. In most significant practice, adherence of good governance is one fundamental principle that African leaders have to uphold, as a guiding principle combined with transparency and accountability, to shy away from the shame of being accused over functional political irresponsibility.
Worth reiterating that the political initiative taken by the African National Congress, headed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, to form a coalition has set the rhythmical parameters for the evolutionary processes, without much resistance to the obvious glaring weaknesses and shortfalls of the past administration. The creation of the new executive government emboldened the concept of “unity in diversity” and would have to float a common understanding towards ratifying and removing the existing complexities and contradictions within the framework of aspirations stipulated in the constitution. In another context, it has some relevance for the current shifting geopolitical situation and emerging multipolar architecture.
With its chequered history behind it, South Africa needs comprehensive result-oriented development initiatives, and this can only come through striking compromise and consequently be adopted by the coalition government. The political stalwarts such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), now grossly involved in treading the tricky balanced act approved by the parliament on June 14, 2024, raised unswerving hopes for South Africa, the southern African nation of approximately 62 million.
It was a breakthrough to merge political forces marking the ‘great beginning’ of a new chapter, as Economic Freedom Fighters, uMkhonto weSizwe, and other parties have remained antagonistic, and have been termed as the game-losers of the century, marking a significant shift in South African political history after 30 years of ANC dominance. It has some implications, though.
The preceding political agitations culminating in the coalition agreement marked the most significant political change since Nelson Mandela led the ANC to victory in 1994, ending apartheid. “Today is a historic day for our country,” DA leader John Steenhuisen stated, highlighting a new chapter focused on the nation’s interests and future. Similarly acknowledging all these without the least doubts, Ramaphosa described the success as “a remarkable change” and “It will once again be a privilege and pleasure to serve this great nation … (as) president,” said the 71-year-old Ramaphosa, emphasizing a new era of hope and cautious inclusivity. (1)
Tackling Existing Tasks
The newly created executive government would necessarily have to determine the scope of transformation, and the contours for a broader strategic economic resuscitation to uplift South Africa back to its status as Africa’s economic power and an influencer on the global stage, starting from the regional bloc, Southern African Development Community (SADC) and to continental organization, the African Union (AU).
As President Cyril Ramaphosa secured the second term, the preliminary pathway must lead towards tackling the existing pertinent issues that were raised during the election campaign and resulted in a fall of supporters (42%), below the simple majority, for the ANC.
Several reports monitored for this article, the ANC’s decline primarily stemmed from persistent issues such as high poverty, inequality, crime, rolling power cuts, and internal corruption. The DA’s entry into national government signifies a watershed moment for South Africa, as the party advocates for scrapping some of the ANC’s Black empowerment programs, aiming for good governance and a strong economy to benefit all citizens.
Perhaps, South Africa’s newly instituted government has to acknowledge the undeniably challenging future tasks that would require adopting suitable strategies for implementing a set of result-expected policy directions. Across the board, however, experts and investors have already welcomed the coalition, expecting policy continuity and accelerated reforms. It is worth mentioning here that the coalition agreement also outlines priorities, inextricably linked to comprehensive sustainable development, such as economic growth, job creation, land reform, infrastructure development, and fiscal sustainability.
South Africa is the fourth-most populous country in Africa, 80 per cent of the population is black, located entirely south of the equator, after Tanzania. But the most paramount feature is that South Africa has a mixed economy. South Africa’s economy is the most industrialized and technologically advanced in Africa respectively, and has the second largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. According to research reports, South Africa has a private wealth of $651 billion making its population the richest in Africa followed by Egypt with $307 billion and Nigeria with $228 billion. (2) Despite these, South Africa is still burdened by a relatively high rate of poverty and unemployment and is ranked in the top ten countries in the world.
Unlike most of the world’s industrialized countries, Energy power outrages have bugged down industrial production and domestic utilization. Electricity deficits in an increasing headache across Africa, and the majority of the African countries lack access to this vital component. African Development Bank and African Import-Export Bank reports said half the total of Africa’s population has no daily access to electricity. The impact is considered simply as immeasurable, though surmountable. South Africa is currently the only country on the African continent that possesses a nuclear power plant. The primary electricity generator is Eskom, the utility is the largest producer of electricity in Africa and also needs capital repairs as the equipment is obsolete and experiences frequent breakdowns, consequently limiting the power supply.
Due to severe mismanagement and corruption at Eskom, the company is R392bn ($22bn) in debt and is unable to meet the demands of the South African power grid. Due to this, Eskom implemented load-shedding, which is periodically switching off electricity to specific power grids in specific time frames. In South Africa, load shedding is done to prevent a failure of the entire system when the demand for electricity strains the capacity of Eskom’s power-generating system. Load shedding is characterized by periods of widespread national-level rolling blackouts.
Dr Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), and current Chairman of Stratek Global, a nuclear project management company based in Pretoria, suggested in a report that the ultimate pathway forward, possibly the “energy mix” can effectively fill certain functions in electricity provision, but “much financial arm-twisting has taken place, in the forms of supposedly soft loans and other inducements to save mankind from the sins of the Industrial Revolution and modern day industrialists.” (4)
Under former President Jacob Zuma, the power crisis in South Africa steadily worsened, as the authorities tried to make up their minds on which direction to follow, according to Kemm. In reality, Zuma pushed for more nuclear power. However, this initiative was vehemently opposed by anti-nuclear green groups who are significantly funded by the countries exporting their green solutions. Zuma-era project to build an additional 9600 MW of nuclear power was torpedoed by the anti-nuclear greens. Then President Cyril Ramaphosa deposed President Jacob Zuma. A hallmark of the tenure of President Ramaphosa has been dithering and uncertainty. The country hoped for a show of strong leadership under President Ramaphosa, but that did not materialize. Thankfully, South Africa is now advancing the nuclear agenda not only by announcing the planned building of a new large nuclear power station but also by supporting the introduction of Small Modular Reactors.
Combined with the energy question discussed above, South Africa is widely infected by corruption. It scored 41 points out of 100 on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. Notwithstanding that, more examples of corruptible governments are abounding in Africa. Critics noted that African leaders are fond of making unilateral decisions, and bartering natural resources without cabinet approval and parliamentary discussions. And according to critics, Africans consistently blame their poor performance on external factors. Corruption is a global phenomenon, but that socioeconomic cancer should be tackled seriously in South Africa.
Senior Writer Kate Whiting indicated, in her report on Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, that Corruption is hindering Africa’s economic, political, and social development… More than this, it affects the well-being of individuals, families, and communities.” The report attributed the deterioration of the rule of law and democratic institutions, as well as a rapidly shrinking space for civil society and independent media to corruption in Africa.
Over the years from the apartheid era until today, there has been tremendous growth in multifaceted crimes across South Africa. Reasons could not be far-fetched, as, blacks are unemployed. The entire economy creates highly limited employment places, and again due to porous official policies. From April 2017 to March 2018, on average 57 murders were committed each day in South Africa. More than 526,000 South Africans were murdered from 1994 to 2019. As of February 2023, South Africa unbelievably has the sixth-highest crime rate in the world.
In an article headlined “Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy” published in June 2024, (5) Samir Bhattacharya, a research associate at Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, India, pointed to the possible impact on its future foreign policy and aspects of its implications. Moving forward, the next administration would need to give the country’s foreign policy issues serious attention, chief among them being the delicate balancing act between the West, China, and Russia. At a deeper level, the incoming administration must develop a realistic foreign policy agenda that inspires confidence among investors, both local and foreign. Due to its close ties to all of the superpowers and the BRICS countries, South Africa’s non-alignment approach to international affairs is unlikely to alter in the current environment.
However, there arises a firm need to keep in mind that South Africa still finds strength in its democratic system, which remains a cornerstone of stability and inclusivity. Due to its participation in numerous international issues and membership in groups such as the G20 and BRICS, South Africa is a significant global player. It has lately surpassed Nigeria to become the largest economy on the African continent. South Africa’s latest developments are closely watched not only in the continent but also globally.
Logical Glimpse into the Future
South Africa boasts of an excellent reputation on the global stage. It is also a member of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union. It is a founding member of the AU’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development. After apartheid ended, South Africa was readmitted to the Commonwealth of Nations. Chronicling history, Johannesburg hosted the latest XVI BRICS summit and continues to play a pivotal role in the BRICS association. China supported by Russia, in 2011, South Africa was enrolled into the informal association BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Jacob Zuma asserted that BRICS member countries would also work with each other through the UN, G20, and the India, Brazil South Africa (IBSA) forum.
According to local African and foreign critics, despite its widened bilateral relations with many foreign countries, and yet South Africa suffers from high youth unemployment, grappling with energy supply deficits, and many other economic obstacles discussed earlier in this article. Ramaphosa consistently attributes weak economic performance to external factors. In his speeches after the second inauguration on June 19, 2024, Ramaphosa unswervingly promised to embark on a swift and vigorous economic resuscitation of South Africa, and within the new geopolitical reality. Nonetheless, the past was seemingly a difficult time. Ramaphosa has to ‘walk the talk’ as illustrated by well-coined linguistic phrases to win the hearts of the working-class, entrepreneurs, and middle-class population. The logic behind his re-election and re-appointment signalizes a complete turning point and a new chapter, at first with steadfastness, cooperating and collaborating in a close-knitted manner with the broad coalition and stakeholders in readiness to adopt radical measures in dealing with the existing economic deficiencies, striving further to improve the economic status of South Africa. The new chapter brings in its fold the necessity to make contentious steps toward achieving visible economic progress and ensuring ultimate economic sovereignty, creating an inspiring bright future for the generations as stipulated within the constitution of South Africa.
References
- Official speeches by DA leader John Steenhuisen and ANC Cyril Ramaphosa made available on the websites (June 2024).
- “World Bank: South Africa” (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 April 2023.
- Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, April 2023 report.
- Ramaphosa’s Administration and the Electricity Challenges in South Africa. Dr Kelvin Kemm (May 2024) interview published by Eurasia Review.
- Samir Bhattacharya, Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy (June 2024), interview published by Global Research.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club. As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: [email protected].
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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